Green Advantage

In the first, exposure to AI is low because its capabilities overlap with relatively few of the abilities required, leaving limited scope for current AI systems to perform the core work. In the second, AI capabilities align more closely with the work, but requirements such as responsibility, judgement and interpersonal interaction make AI more likely to complement workers’ expertise than replace it.

• Around 96% of young people on green apprenticeships in England are training for occupations with lower potential for AI substitution, compared with around three quarters (73%) across apprenticeships as a whole. This reflects the concentration of green apprenticeships in trades and technical roles, where AI overlaps with relatively few of the abilities the work requires.
   
• This profile is driven by trades. Green apprenticeships cover two broad groups: roles that directly deliver environmental outcomes, such as horticulture and environmental practice, and established trades whose skills are changing with the transition, such as electricians and plumbers. All ten of the largest apprenticeships in the second group lead into occupations with low AI exposure, led by installation and maintenance electricians, motor vehicle service and maintenance technicians, and plumbing and domestic heating technicians. Nine of the ten largest in the first group also lead into occupations with lower substitution potential. Overall, around 86% of young people on green apprenticeships are training for low-exposure occupations.
   
• Green apprenticeships already operate at scale, accounting for around 32% of all apprenticeship participation among 16- to 24-year-olds in England. Around two thirds of this is at Level 3, broadly equivalent to A levels. Green standards make up only around one in five (19%) apprenticeships at Level 2, broadly equivalent to GCSEs, which is an important entry point for young people with few or no qualifications.

• More than four in five green jobs are in occupations with lower substitution potential. The figure is around 82% and 84% respectively on the ONS-defined Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) and Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS) measures, compared with around 74% across the UK workforce.
   
• The share of green jobs in the occupations with the highest substitution potential is around a third lower than across the UK on the LCREE measure (18% against 26%) and nearly two fifths lower on the EGSS measure (16%).
   
• The difference is driven by low-exposure work, which accounts for half of LCREE employment and 58% of EGSS employment, against 41% across the UK. The largest green occupations are practical trades and operative roles, including construction trades, carpenters and joiners, plumbers, electricians and water and sewerage plant operatives.

• Clean energy employment is expected to almost double, from around 440,000 in 2023 to 860,000 by 2030, according to the government's Clean Energy Jobs Plan. Every UK region will need additional workers, with the largest requirements in Scotland and the East of England, at around 55,000 to 60,000 each.
   
• The large majority of additional workers needed in priority occupations by 2030, around 94%, are in occupations with lower substitution potential. Two thirds (66%) are in low-exposure occupations, and a further 28% are in occupations where AI is more likely to support the worker.
   
• Demand is concentrated in established trades. Plumbers and heating and ventilating installers have the largest projected increase, at 8,500 to 10,000 additional workers. Electricians and carpenters and joiners each need a further 7,000 to 8,499.
   
• Many of these roles are accessible without a degree. Skills England estimates that 59% of projected additional employment in key priority occupations will require qualifications at Level 2 or 3, making clean energy one of only three sectors, alongside adult social care and construction, where most expected demand sits at these levels.