Welsh electricity independence

The country’s failure to keep pace with the renewables transition now leaves it in danger of becoming dependent on England and Scotland for electricity for the first time.

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This analysis examines the changing landscape of Welsh electricity generation and supply over the past two decades, assessing Wales's energy independence and the evolution of its power sector relative to other UK nations. The analysis reveals that:

  • Welsh net electricity exports have collapsed, from a peak of over 21 TWh in 2016 to near zero in 2024. Wales was a net importer from England for the first time last year.
  • Electricity generation has fallen by almost 50% from its 2016 peak, as growth in renewable capacity has not kept pace with the drop in generation from coal and nuclear. Gas now accounts for 58% of Welsh generation - a greater share than any other UK nation - leaving Welsh generators and their downstream customers across the UK heavily exposed to volatile international fossil fuel markets.
  • Wales has fallen behind on decarbonisation. Power sector emissions intensity has fallen 39% since 2004, lagging England's 69% and Scotland's 89%. Welsh electricity is now 58% more carbon-intensive than the UK average.
  • Renewable generation has grown nearly eightfold since 2004, now covering around a third of Welsh electricity needs. However, growth has stalled since 2019, and Wales's renewable planning pipeline, while substantial, is smaller and less developed than those of England and Scotland.
  • Electricity demand is expected to at least double as heat, transport and industry electrify. At current buildout rates, renewables' share of Welsh generation will fall rather than rise.
  • Delivering on and expanding the renewable capacity pipeline, including 875 MW of offshore wind from the recent AR7 CfD round, is critical to deliver on Wales's decarbonisation commitments and avoid falling further behind and meeting its growing demand for electricity.

Wales - like the other nations of the United Kingdom – has made significant progress in scaling up its renewables sector and decarbonising its power supply. However, this growth is failing to keep pace with the decline in non-renewable energy sources or with the growing demand for electricity driven by the electrification of industry, home heating, and transport. It has also found that Wales’s planning pipeline is substantially less developed than those in England and Scotland. As a result, Wales’s capacity to meet its electricity needs from domestic sources is declining – with 2024 marking the first year in which the country imported power from the rest of the UK. After decades in which the country has been a net exporter of electricity, Wales is falling behind England and Scotland and is now on course to become dependent on imported electricity for the first time. 

Without ambitious action to grow its share of homegrown renewables, renewables’ share of the electricity mix forecast to fall on current buildout rates. Meanwhile, Wales’s dependence on gas is forecast to grow, leaving it highly exposed to price volatility in global fossil fuel markets – even as the conflict in the Middle East raises concerns about a replay of the 2021/2022 energy crisis, which had direct economic costs to the Welsh economy of £5.6 billion.

For policymakers in Wales, the country faces a clear choice: either to invest in its renewable resources to rebuild generation capacity and energy independence or to accept growing reliance on imported gas and English electricity – with all the costs, volatility and lost economic opportunity that that entails.