Comment on OBR revisions to EV uptake forecasts

Commenting on revisions made by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) to electric vehicle uptake forecasts, Colin Walker, Head of Transport at the Energy & Climate Intelligent Unit (ECIU)said: “As the OBR acknowledges, EV sales have repeatedly exceeded their expectations in the past. Sales have increased rapidly, from less than 1% of new cars sold in 2017-18 to over 16% in 2022-23. Meanwhile, the second-hand EV market has doubled in size in the last year. The OBR’s revisions simply bring their forecasts in line with the EV sales trajectory set out in the Government’s Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate. This will require 22% of cars sold in 2024 to be EVs, steadily rising to 80% in 2030, and 100% in 2035.

“Any slowing in consumer demand forecast by the OBR is no surprise given the confusion created by the Government’s U-turn on the 2030 phase out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. The OBR states that this may have resulted in some consumers delaying the switch to EVs.

“Ultimately, that means fewer EVs flowing on to the second hand market and more families having to stick with more expensive to run petrol cars. The nation’s driving bill will be higher as a result. It’s not a great result for a Government now trying to incentivise battery factories to locate to the UK”.

ENDS

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net