Ofgem price cap update: analysis and comment

Jess Ralston is available for further comment and interview.

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By George Smeeton


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New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) reveals that, despite a fall in the price cap tomorrow, the average annual dual fuel bill for a UK household is still around 40%, or £450, higher than pre-crisis levels.

In addition, over the three years since the start of the gas crisis, the average UK household's dual fuel bill has reached £6,800, which is double the cost of energy bills in the three years prior to the gas crisis (£3,400). Due to the energy price guarantee, the Government paid over £1,000 of this increase, with the household covering the other £2,400.

Commenting on the price cap, Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at the ECIU, said: "Households are still struggling with bills that are hundreds of pounds higher than pre-crisis levels and estimates suggest bills may rise again as we head into winter. The UK spent around £100bn on gas over the past two years. We could have learned lessons from the crisis and insulated our buildings, built more renewables and moved away from gas boilers, but instead home insulation schemes are unambitious, the last renewables auction secured no more offshore wind, and the shift to electric heat pumps has been delayed.

"Whatever colour the next government is, we'll be heading into a winter still heavily dependent on volatile gas markets, going backwards on our energy independence. The cost of living, driven in part by energy bills, and the UK’s energy security may well be key election issues - so how the parties choose to tackle them will likely be in the spotlight."

Notes to editors:

1. Analysis uses price cap data up to Q2 2024, and Cornwall's final forecast for Q3 2024.

2. These bills are calculated on the basis of prices and demand splits in each quarter, to reflect the volatility of prices during the crisis.

3. Government paid each household the £400 under the Energy Bill Support Scheme (EBSS), and more to some households via other support packages.

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: +44 (0)7894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net