‘Patriotic pumps’: heat pumps to run mainly on British energy as boilers set to be ‘heavily dependent’ on imports
Over next five years heat pumps increasingly run on British renewable electricity as gas boilers become 80% dependent on imports
By George Smeeton
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New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found that consumers wanting to ‘buy British’ energy for their heating and insulate themselves from volatile international gas markets, should be investing in an electric heat pump [1].
Already in 2024, UK renewables and a heat pump’s high efficiency mean that it needs less energy and less imported energy: a household uses only half as much imported primary energy with a heat pump as with a gas boiler, for example 2.9MWh compared to 5.7MWh per year for a home rated EPC C. [2]
Come 2030, in just five years’ time, if the renewables roll out continues to accelerate, a heat pump would be using just 1.3MWh of imported primary energy, 55% less than today. By contrast, a gas boiler will be 80% dependent on imports, as North Sea output continues its ongoing decline, using 7.6MWh of imported gas in 2030, a third more than in 2024. [3]
This means that a heat pump would use as little as a sixth (17%) as much imported energy as the gas boiler in 2030.
Statistics from the North Sea Transition Authority show that this decline in UK gas production will not be significantly changed with or without a moratorium on new drilling, and the impacts of any gas from potential new fields are small compared to projections of UK gas demand. [4]
Commenting on the analysis, Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at ECIU said: “If you want to be heating your home on homegrown, British energy then a heat pump is the way to go. This ‘energy patriotism’ for heating is helping the UK as a whole to wean itself of foreign energy imports, boosting the UK’s energy security as British renewables ramp up rapidly.
“New renewables agreed at September’s government auction generate at a fixed price helping to stabilize electricity costs against the volatile price of electricity from gas power stations.
“The Clean Heat Market Mechanism was delayed a year by the last Government, no doubt impacting the heat pump supply chains that were gearing up to deliver more of this patriotic solution into people’s homes. We know that continuing to rely on gas boilers just means we’ll see our imports rise, so any boiler manufacturers that stand in the way of progress on heat pumps are lobbying for higher foreign gas imports and less energy security.”
The Sunak Government rowed back on various measures that would see more heat pumps installed, including delaying the phase out of fossil fuel boilers in off-gas-grid homes from 2026 to 2035 [5] and delaying the Clean Heat Market Mechanism by one year [6]. It also stated that 1 in 5 homes would not need to install a heat pump from 2035. However, the same administration also upped the grant funding per heat pump under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme from £5,000 to £7,500 which resulted in a doubling of applications [7] with demand still high today [8].
Some of the gas boiler manufacturers chose to impose a so-called “boiler tax” increasing the cost of their sale of gas boilers to lobby for a delay in the CHMM policy which was supposed to take effect in May this year. There have been reports that the industry is unable to guarantee that the “boiler tax” collected at the beginning of the year before the policy was delayed would be returned to consumers [9].
Recent articles suggest the industry is set to re-introduce its so-called ‘boiler tax’ at an increased level of around £180 compared to around £110 last year [10]. Media reported that the Energy Utilities Alliance, the industry’s lobby group, used a public relations firm to “spark outrage” at heat pumps [11].
ENDS
Notes to editors
1. Analysis available here.
2. The analysis is based on a home rated EPC C, for which median gas demand is 9.6MWh/yr. Imported gas for this home in 2024 is based on stats showing that imports for UK use (i.e. excluding those for transit to the EU during the gas crisis) currently equate to c.60% of UK gas demand. This household gas demand is translated into actual heat demand (using typical boiler efficiency), and then into the electrical demand for a heat pump that provides the same amount of heat (using heat pump coefficient of performance). Network losses, grid mix and power plant efficiencies are used to estimate how much primary energy (gas, nuclear, biomass) is needed to power the heat pump. And current import percentages of each fuel are applied to estimate the imported primary energy required by the heat pump.
3. These faster trends are discussed in the report, and would resemble more ambitious scenarios produced by industry experts e.g. Leading the Way scenario in the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) (National Grid ESO, 2024). For electricity in 2030, there would likely be some residual gas called on occasionally for the power mix, and some power from nuclear fuel and other fuels, but the vast majority of electricity is estimated to be supplied by renewables that use no fuels. Under scenarios examined, the combinations of gas production with/without new licences and gas demand falling slower/faster would both result in UK gas production equating to around 20% of UK gas demand, with 80% coming from imports (likely split around 40% from Norway, 20% Qatar and 20% other countries).
4. UK gas production in 2030 will have fallen to around 55% below current levels, even if any new licences resulted in extra output. North Sea Transition Authority forecasts: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-and-insights/insights-and-analysis/production-and-expenditure-projections/
5. Delay to fossil fuel boiler phase out in off gas grid homes: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9838/#.
7. BUS grant upped, applications doubled: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/demand-for-heat-pumps-rises-following-increase-in-applications-to-the-boiler-upgrade-scheme
8. BUS statistics October 2024: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/boiler-upgrade-scheme-october-2024
9. EUA spark outrage: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/20/gas-boiler-lobby-uk-heat-pump-plans-leak
10. Sky News, boiler manufacturers unable to guarantee return of ‘boiler tax’: https://news.sky.com/story/big-boiler-manufacturers-canoot-guarantee-boiler-tax-refund-for-ripped-off-customers-13113562#
11. Boiler tax returns, potentially adding £180 to bills: https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/30595964/boiler-tax-heat-pump-targets/#
For more information or for interview requests:
George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: +44 (0)7894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net