Farmer confidence battered by climate change – new research

Over 80% of farmers are concerned about the impact of climate change on their ability to make a living, as more than four fifths say extreme weather has hit their productivity

Profile picture of Tom Lancaster

By Tom Lancaster

info@eciu.net

Last updated:

New research [1] into farmer’s attitudes to climate change and extreme weather reveals the extent to which farmers have been affected by recent extreme weather events, many made worse by climate change. In the past five years, 86% of farmers have been hit by extreme rainfall, 78% by drought and over a half by the impacts of heatwaves. Only 2% have not experienced extreme weather in some form. The research follows several recent attribution studies that draw a clear causal link between the increasingly extreme weather affecting farmers and climate change [2].
 
The market research of 300 farmers [3] across the UK was commissioned by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) from Grounded Research [4], specialists in gathering insights into questions about food and farming. When asked what impact recent extreme weather has had on their farms, 87% cited reduced productivity, 84% have witnessed a reduction in crop yields or livestock output, whilst three quarters have seen their incomes reduced. The release of the research coincides with the beginning of the Groundswell regenerative agriculture festival [5], where the Secretary of State for Defra Steve Reed will be speaking on Thursday.
 
Commenting on the research, Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said:

“Farmers are on the front line of climate change and this research reveals what impact that is having on them and their businesses. From lost crops and livestock to soil erosion, farmers are battling these impacts across more fronts than most with repeated heatwaves, droughts and periods of extreme rainfall all taking a toll on farmer confidence. 
 
“Beyond farmers, the scale of these climate impacts also calls into question the UK’s food security in the face of climate change driven extreme weather. We need to be taking these risks more seriously, with more support for farming to adapt and build resilience, as well as more urgent action to help farmers reduce their own emissions.”
 
The research comes shortly after confirmation of the billion pound hit [6] to arable farmers after last years unprecedented extreme wet winter led to one of the worst harvests in decades [7], and growing fears for this harvest [8] after the warmest and one of the driest springs on record [9]. In response to these impacts, over two thirds of farmers have changed how they farm, including what they farm, or by joining an environmental scheme and investing in diversification. Over 30% are also ‘highly concerned’ about their ability to make a living from the farm in the future due to climate change, with 50% somewhat concerned.
 
When asked about the ability of the next generation to make a living, the proportion highly concerned rises to two in five, leaving over four fifths concerned about the impact of climate change on the next generation’s ability to farm, fuelling wider worries about the future of farming following last year’s Budget.
 
Anthony Curwen, a farmer from Kent, said: “It’s getting increasingly difficult to farm given the impacts we’re now seeing with climate change. We’ve gone from drought to Biblical floods and back to drought in the space of just a few years. It’s devastating and many of us in farming now fear for a sustainable future.
 
“What we need most now from government is a bit of stability and some better support to help us become resilient to these impacts. If we want to retain a robust supply of home-grown food, we need to invest more into the soil, water and wildlife that build this resilience and bolster the fundamentals of our food security. In an era when the climate is giving us a kicking, we need government to have our back, not add to the uncertainty.”
 
The research for ECIU found that famers are willing and open to change but need better support. When asked whether addressing the risk of climate change was a priority, even if it entailed changing what and how we farm in the UK and what food we eat, over half of farmers agreed, with just under a third disagreeing. 60% of farmers would consider creating habitats such as wildflower margins, in addition to those habitats they are already delivering, with a quarter open to tree planting and a fifth happy to consider woodland creation.
 
But many see the need for better policies to support farmers to adapt to these impacts, with two thirds citing the need for better farmgate prices to reduce financial stress and create more headroom for environmental work, and nearly 60% identifying the need for more long-term certainty in the design of green farming schemes across the UK. These results echo current moves by the UK government to improve farm profitability [10] and recent disruption to the flagship environmental farming scheme in England, the Sustainable Farming Incentive [11].


Notes to editors: 

1. Survey results available on request. 

2. For example: June 2025 UK heatwave made 100 times more likely by climate change, https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-turns-warm-summer-days-in-england-into-health-threat/ 

Without human-caused climate change temperatures of 40°C in the UK would have been extremely unlikely in July 2022, https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/without-human-caused-climate-change-temperatures-of-40c-in-the-uk-would-have-been-extremely-unlikely/
 
Autumn and winter storm rainfall in 2023/24 in the UK and Ireland was made about 20% heavier by human-caused climate change, https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/autumn-and-winter-storms-over-uk-and-ireland-are-becoming-wetter-due-to-climate-change/
 
3. 300 is considered statistically robust for market research when the population is relatively well-defined, as is the case with UK farmers. At this size, it is possible to achieve a margin of error of approximately ±5.7% at a 95% confidence level, which is widely accepted as sufficient for drawing meaningful conclusions. Unlike general population polling, which often requires larger samples to reflect a broad and highly diverse public, market research typically targets more specific audiences. This allows for greater depth of insight per respondent and often incorporates additional layers of screening, segmentation, and behavioural context. 

4. https://www.groundedresearch.co.uk 

5. https://groundswellag.com  

6. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/uk-farmers-lose-1bn-from-extreme-wet-winter-comment-on-new-defra-data 

7. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2024/uk-harvest-hits-near-record-lows-following-government-food-security-warnings 

8. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/harvest-on-a-knife-edge-after-record-breaking-spring-analysis 

9. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/double-record-breaker-spring-2025-is-warmest-and-sunniest-on-uk-record 

10. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/former-nfu-president-and-farmer-baroness-minette-batters-appointed-by-defra-to-lead-farm-profitability-review

11. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/12/closure-post-brexit-subsidy-scheme-wrongly-blocked-farmers-funding

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net