Paris Agreement at ten – ‘brakes slammed on’ emissions growth, finds analysis

A decade since the landmark Paris Agreement was signed at the COP21 climate change summit, new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found global growth in carbon emissions compared to the previous decade has slowed fivefold to just 0.32% a year.

In the decade before Paris, they rose more than 5 times faster, at 1.70% per year. Total annual CO₂ emissions grew by just 1.17% since 2015, a dramatic slowdown from nearly 18.4% growth in the decade before 2015.

While the global economy has grown by just under 28% in real terms since 2015, the analysis shows the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions (including CO₂) have increased by a little over 3% over the same period. This means emissions intensity per dollar of the global economy has fallen just over a fifth (21%) [1].

John Lang, Net Zero Tracker Lead, from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said:

“Whilst we still need to go further and faster to get on track to limit heating, it is clear multi-lateral action on climate has helped to slam the brakes on global emissions growth since the Paris Agreement was signed. While the global economy has grown, annual carbon emissions growth has slowed dramatically. And China, responsible for more than half of all new renewable capacity installed globally [2] last year, may now be at the point where their emissions have already peaked [3].

“At Paris the world’s governments agreed to limit temperature rise and then at COP26 in Glasgow, the UK played its part in crystalising that aim in net zero emissions targets, net zero being the only way to bring the climate back into balance and so stop climate change.

“With the hottest British summer on record alongside record levels of fire and other dangerous climate impacts hitting health, farming and food prices, the imperative is clear. Any delay to reaching net zero takes us ever closer to tipping points that cost lives and could see the UK struggling to grow enough food.”

Recent analysis has pointed to emissions from China, the world’s largest emitter, potentially peaking this year [5].

China’s investment in renewables is expected to account for around a third of total global renewables investment this year [6], in stark contrast to the US, which only accounted for around 15%, under the previous administration, in 2024 [7]. Indeed, China installed twice as much of renewable capacity globally in 2024 as the US, India and EU combined.

Clean-energy technologies exported by China accounted for 1% reduction in global emissions outside China [8], avoiding as much CO2 equivalent over their lifetime as more than 10 times the UK’s emissions for 2024. In the UK, emissions are down 54% on 1990 levels, more than halfway to reaching net zero emissions, with reductions becoming faster and steeper from deployment of renewables with emissions from power falling 74% from 2014 to 2024. [4]

World leaders in New York for the UN General Assembly are submitting updated emissions pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil. The job of the next UN climate summit is to close the emissions gap further, getting closer to the 1.5°C committed to in Paris, 10 years ago. With the US having pulled out of Paris again, COP hosts Brazil, along with China, the UK, and other climate leaders are working to ensure the multi-lateral approach that has so substantially slowed emissions reductions holds up, and accelerates to close that gap. Efforts that will be bolstered by analysis suggesting that, despite Trump’s rollback of climate efforts, net zero targets remain in 19 US states [9], and that continued action at state, city and company level could still deliver a substantial portion of the US target submitted under Biden. [10]

The latest Net Zero Tracker 'Stocktake' assessment of governments and companies confirms that net zero targets are expanding — and in many cases being strengthened — around the world. Despite the US federal retreat from multilateral institutions and climate policy, US companies with net zero targets jumped 9% in one year, now representing $12 trillion in global annual revenue. Elsewhere, momentum across Asia continues to build, and no other major emitter has followed Washington's withdrawal. Nineteen of the G20 remain committed to net zero by mid-century.[11]

ENDS  

Notes to editors

1. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD 

2. Energy Institute: Statistical Review of World Energy: https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review 

3. Carbon Monitor shows China’s emissions from January to July 2025 being 2.1% lower than the same period last year. https://carbonmonitor.org/variation 

4. Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-electricity-was-cleanest-ever-in-2024/ 

5. Carbon Monitor: https://carbonmonitor.org/variation 

6. International Energy Agency – world energy investment, 2025: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2025 

7.  International Energy Agency – world energy investment, 2024: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2024/united-states 

8. Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-clean-energy-exports-in-2024-alone-will-cut-overseas-co2-by-1/ 

9. Net Zero Tracker assessment: Net Zero Tracker Stocktake: https://zerotracker.net/insights/global-net-zero-commitments-rise-even-as-u-s-federal-government-retreats 

10. America Is All In: https://www.americaisallin.com/advancing-us-climate-action-under-federal-policy-rollbacks 

11. Net Zero Tracker Stocktake, 2025: https://zerotracker.net/analysis/net-zero-stocktake-2025 

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net 

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