As fears grow over impact of Iran war on Welsh economy, voters say renewables offers Wales best opportunity for growth

When asked which sector they believed would be the most likely to deliver economic growth in Wales over the next five years, four in ten respondents (38%) said renewables and clean energy – nearly twice as many as who said Artificial Intelligence (20%), the second most popular option. The polling, which was conducted by More in Common on behalf of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, also found that Welsh voters are three times more likely to believe that the decarbonization of Welsh industry will benefit the Welsh economy more in the long-term than harm it.
 
On Tuesday 14th April, Donald Trump reiterated his earlier calls for the UK to abandon its efforts to decarbonise the UK’s energy system and maximise its output in the North Sea instead (2). However, this polling suggests that renewables remain resoundingly popular with the Welsh public - with voters of all major parties, including Reform UK, supporting new solar, wind, tidal and hydro power over fossil fuels like coal and fracking. The US President’s exhortation for the UK to “drill, baby, drill” is unlikely to be warmly received in Wales with 67% of voters saying that the UK should not follow Trump’s advice and should instead focus on accelerating the deployment of new renewables.
 
Commenting, Laura Dunn, Senior Associate at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “Wales and Britain’s dependence on oil and gas leaves us badly exposed to volatility in global markets – with the last energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine costing every household in Wales on average £2,285.
 
“With conflict sending prices at the pump up again, Welsh voters definitely don't see eye-to-eye with President Trump and his calls to “drill, baby, drill”. The polling is clear: the Welsh public sees that renewables are the biggest economic growth opportunity for the country and, at a time of growing economic uncertainty, are keen to see the jobs, training opportunities, and inward investment that the net zero transition can deliver.”
 
The possible impact of the war in Iran on the economy continues to loom large over elections to the Senedd on May 7th. The crisis in the Middle East has caused significant volatility to international oil and gas markets, with gas prices rising to their highest levels in three years at the height of the crisis (3). The IMF has warned that the UK will be “especially exposed” to the fallout of the war in Iran, as a result of its dependence on gas for electricity generation and heating, and last week cut its growth forecasts for the UK more than any other G7 member (4). Analysis by the ECIU has found that the last energy crisis, which followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, cost the Welsh economy £5.6 billion (5).
 
Ahead of the vote, six in ten (63%) voters said that one of the biggest issues in the election was the cost-of-living crisis, with nearly eight in ten (77%) saying that energy prices were causing them to be most concerned about their cost of living. Nearly half of voters (48%) said that a party’s proposals for addressing cost-of-living pressures would be the most important issue in deciding how they vote.
 
In response to the ongoing uncertainty in international energy markets, some UK politicians – including Reform UK and the Conservatives – have called for the UK to reverse its moratorium on new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea (6). However, experts have suggested that issuing new licences will do little to address the UK’s immediate energy challenges, as prices are set internationally and it takes many years for new sites to become operational (7).