June heatwave knocks €2 billion off European harvest prospects – new analysis

New analysis [1] suggests that the June heatwave is likely to have cost European grain [2] farmers around €2 billion in lost revenue, destroying 10 million tonnes of forecast production. The extreme heat affected kernel filling for wheat and maize pollination [3]. Even after upwards revisions in a small number of countries, the European harvest is now forecast to be 9 million tonnes smaller than expected in June, more than the combined total forecast grain production of Austria, Ireland and the Netherlands [4].
 
COCERAL, the industry body representing the cereals, oilseeds, rice and olive oil sectors produced an ‘extraordinary’ forecast in July [5] following a June forecast, in order to estimate the impact of the June heatwave, which broke temperature records across the UK and rest of Europe. Scientists have said that the ‘record-shattering’ European heatwave was ‘virtually impossible just 50 years ago’ and that ‘climate change is unequivocally to blame’ [6].
 
Based on current prices, the value of this lost production is estimated by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), who produced the analysis, to be around €2 billion for grains such as wheat, barley and maize alone. This falls to around €1.8 billion after accounting for improved harvest prospects in a few countries, such as Bulgaria, that escaped the worst of the heat. Wider costs of the heatwave, such as lost livestock and vegetable crops, are not included in this estimate.
 
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said, “The June heatwave came at a terrible time for European cereals farmers, hitting crop development and reducing yields across the continent. This will hit farmers in the pockets, reducing their income and undermining European food security at the same time. 
 
“With clear, scientific proof that climate change was to blame for severity of the June heatwave, these losses are just a portent of the future impacts we will see if we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and bring our climate back into balance. In the UK we have already seen three of the five worst harvests on record [7] this decade, and recent heatwaves here will inevitably have cost British farmers again."
 
The biggest reductions in forecast production are in France, where the maize crop is expected to be 3.4m tonnes less than was hoped for in June. Losses for maize and other grains in France alone would be worth €891m. The countries experiencing the next biggest losses are Hungary at 2.4m tonnes and Spain at 1.4m tonnes. These losses are likely to make Europe more dependent on imports, and may contribute towards higher global commodity prices depending on harvest prospects in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2026 and early 2027 [8].
 
Benoît Merlo, a farmer in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region of France said, “I’ve been working on my farm for ten years to make it more resilient through cover crops, crop rotations and species adapted to hotter and drier conditions. But with temperatures exceeding 38°C for weeks on end, everything is breaking down. I’m expecting yield losses of at least 50 per cent, or even 70 per cent, for certain crops, such as soya. We’re no longer heading for a crash - we’re already there."
 
The June heatwave saw the highest ever June temperature recorded in the UK, and the highest ever temperatures for any month in France, Germany, Denmark and the Czech Republic [9]. As well as European grain crops, the heatwave had a significant impact on other farming sectors, with hundreds of thousands of chickens dying in France due to extreme heat [10] and vegetable crops hit by a lack of soil moisture [11].
 
Kai Kornhuber, Theme Lead for Weather Extremes and Climate Dynamics at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), said: ‘It is scientifically undisputed that anthropogenic warming is the main driver of these unprecedented heat extremes, which will continue to negatively affect agricultural production unless emissions are reduced.’
 
The European heatwave and drought conditions come at a time when the United States is also experiencing a severe-to-exceptional drought across much of the southern and western states, hitting both arable and livestock production [12].

ENDS

Notes to editors:
 

1. The analysis is available to download here.
2. Grains included in the forecast were soft wheat, durum wheat, barley, corn (maize), rye, oats, sorghum and mixed grains and triticale  
3. Grain fill refers to the stage of crop development where grains need moisture to fill out, a key stage for overall yield. Maize pollination is affected by extreme heat as it reduces pollen viability and inhibits wider plant development.
4. The COCERAL July forecast for production in these countries is 8.67 million tonnes
5. https://www.coceral.com/web/%20coceral%20crop%20forecast%20|%20july%202026%20/1011306087/list1187970814/f1.html
6. https://mcusercontent.com/854a9a3e09405d4ab19a4a9d5/files/724ade7e-f37f-005f-e166-1f2b53a35d21/FINAL__WWA_Press_Release_Europe_Heat.pdf
7. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/england-has-second-worst-harvest-on-record-comment
8. AHDB Arable Market Report – 13 July 2026, https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-13-july-2026#:~:text=On%20Friday%20evening%2C%20the%20USDA%20cut%20its%20estimates%20of%20global%20wheat%20and%20maize%20stocks%20in%202026/27%20by%20slightly%20more%20than%20the%20market%20was%20expecting.%20This%20puts%20more%20pressure%20on%20crops%20that%20are%20still%20growing%20or%20yet%20to%20be%20planted%20e.g.%20in%20South%20America%2C%20to%20perform%20and%20avoid%20further%20cuts%20to%20stock%20forecasts.
9. Temperature records shattered in Europe as deadly heatwave moves east, https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/germany-poland-poised-soaring-temperatures-heatwave-moves-east-2026-06-27/
10. Heatwave kills hundreds of thousands of poultry in France, https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/record-heat-causes-mass-poultry-deaths-france-2026-06-24/
11. France faces onion shortage as heatwave ruins crops, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/19/france-faces-onion-shortage-as-heatwave-ruins-crops/
12. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net