Trump’s Paresxit: In whose name?

The vast majority of political decisions contain a nugget of logic at their core; you might not agree with them, but you can see why they’ve been taken.

For example, the economic and social logic behind the Conservatives’ manifesto pledge to change social care payments is clear. So is the political logic behind rolling back that pledge. Again, you may not agree with one or the other, or even both, but you can see the rationale.

And in most cases, you can identify the constituency in whose interest a particular measure has been made.

President Donald Trump’s forthcoming decision to pull out, or at least heavily contest, the Paris climate agreement (more on what form it might take later) is an exception to the rule. Neither logic nor constituency is visible.

(Note - I am presuming some kind of pullout thang - he's been teasing for months, but the runes, this time, are reading pretty strongly. The runes and I could be wrong. But read the rest of this as though we're right.)

Are the American people demanding it? Not at all: opinion surveys show a clear majority in favour of the Paris Agreement, not only nationally but in every state. Nearly twice as many Trump supporters back it as oppose it.

Is business demanding it? Au contraire. The last months have seen a succession of company executives trooping down to the White House to press their case for staying in. Those companies include not only the ones you’d expect – the Googles, the Walmarts, the Coca-Colas of this world – but, more remarkably, the oil companies and even coal companies in whose interests the President is claiming to act.

Is it to satisfy international allies? This is the most emphatic ‘no’ of the lot. As the other six members of the G7 made clear last weekend, as the leaders of China and the EU are demonstrating this week, as nation after nation declared on the occasion of Mr Trump’s election last November, the Paris Agreement is here to stay.

So it’s all rather puzzling.

Strange fruit

Then, one can turn to the arguments being made in favour of pullout – fortunately the lobby group the Competitive Enterprise Institute has neatly formulated them for us.

• The Paris Agreement ‘endangers America’s capacity for self-government’. Well – no more than any other international agreement. By this logic, the US certainly ought to withdraw from the World Trade Organization. The corollary is that inside such agreements, the US has the capacity to steer other nations to its vision – and the US has largely got its way, historically, due to its huge economic muscle
• ‘The United States cannot comply with the Paris Agreement and pursue a pro-growth energy agenda… the Paris Agreement’s central goal is to make fossil fuels… more expensive across the board’. There’s abundant evidence showing that on a macro-scale, economies do not suffer from climate policies – G7 countries have all grown their economies and shrunk their emissions on a per-capita basis over the 25 years from Rio
• It’s also a mis-characterisation of the likely impact of the Paris Agreement, which will be to make all forms of energy cheaper – renewables, storage, electric vehicles etc by creating a massive global market, fossil fuels through reducing demand
• ‘Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is a humanitarian imperative’ for the poorest people. This is a truly bizarre statement. I can’t think of a single organisation working on the ground to improve the lives of poor people that doesn’t back the Paris Agreement. Christian Aid, Oxfam, Tearfund, Cafod… how long do you want the list to be? And we can add the Pope, and leaders of most major faiths. Oh, and the military, who are often at the heart of interventions after humanitarian crises.

Very strange indeed.