Electrification: COP31 35% by 2035 target and progress amongst G20 nations

In the G20, South Korea has already hit, and Japan is close to 35%, whilst China – the world’s biggest emitter and second biggest economy – looks to be on track for 35% before 2030.

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Efforts to tackle climate change in the decade since the Paris Agreement, in concert with action to address volatile and rising energy costs and provide energy security amidst two fossil fuel crises, have helped drive electrification globally.

  • Electrification represents a route to greater security and affordability at national level, reducing exposure to oil and gas markets. As electricity can be more efficient than burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, or gas – it also aids decarbonisation by reducing demand for primary energy.
     
  • At the household level, electrification offers greater energy security, efficiency and affordability through switching to electric vehicles from petrol/diesel ones, electric heat pumps from oil and gas, and through installing solar generation and battery storage.
     
  • Worldwide, across industry, buildings, and transport (which each account for roughly a third of final energy use), nearly a quarter – 23% - of final energy demand had been electrified by the end of 2024, as global momentum on climate action coincides with affordability and energy security imperatives.
     
  • Most progress has been made on industry, and on powering, heating, and cooling buildings. On the latest data available (to end 2024), however, there has been limited progress globally on transport.
  • A global electrification target agreed at COP31 could add increased momentum to speed up the process and narrow the gap to the proposed target level of 35% electrification by 2035.
     
  • The electrification and decarbonisation combination throws into stark relief growing risk for major fossil fuel producing countries – like Australia, co-hosting COP31 – as momentum on both brings the world closer to turning the corner on demand for coal, oil and gas. India and China both saw falls in reliance on fossil fuels last year, and China has recently cut its emissions as it also leads the world in producing net zero technologies.
     
  • In the G20, the world’s largest economies, South Korea has already hit, and Japan is close to 35%, whilst China – the world’s biggest emitter and second biggest economy – looks to be on track for 35% before 2030.
     
  • The UK has made good progress on decarbonisation, and has one of the cleanest power systems in the G20. But the UK is below the global, G20 and EU average on electrification.
     
  • The UK has an opportunity to lead by example. Given the certainty now that the world will overshoot the Paris goal of 1.5°C, the UK G20 presidency next year can drive electrification and decarbonisation in tandem, showing what is possible on industry and buildings, and stepping up the pace of transition to EVs, also enhancing our competitive advantage on transport into the bargain.
     
  • The UK’s rapid decarbonisation has fuelled electrification sufficiently to hit 35% for industry already. With continued commitment to the shift to electric heat pumps to replace gas and oil, the UK could also be on track for 35% buildings electrification by 2030, after having sped up progress in recent years.
     
  • The UK’s progress on electrifying transport is middling compared to other G20 nations, but it is still low in absolute terms. Surface transport makes up the largest sector of UK emissions, with the majority coming from driving. Despite a strong acceleration of EV sales in recent months and years, the UK Government remains poised to announce a decision about the future of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate which could slow the transition to electric vehicles.