Food inflation and climate impacts: understanding recent UK trends

Although these products make up around 11% of the typical shopping basket, they have accounted for 30–40% of total food price inflation over much of the past two years. 

Price increases for these items have been significantly higher than for the rest of the food basket, largely linked to extreme weather affecting production. 

The findings suggest that climate-related impacts on food production are an increasingly important factor shaping food price trends in the UK.

Food inflation has been a major component of broader UK inflation in recent years, contributing to pressure on household budgets. This analysis focuses on the drivers behind these increases, examining the role of different factors including wages, regulation and external shocks. It finds that, while multiple factors influence food prices, recent trends are strongly associated with climate impacts on specific commodities. Central banks, including the Bank of England, have also highlighted the growing role of extreme weather in shaping food price volatility.

Price rises in these climate-affected foods - butter, beef, milk, coffee, and chocolate - have been significantly higher than for other items:

• Inflation for these products peaked at 16% in July 2025
• This compares with 2.6% for the rest of the food and drink basket

As a result, much of the variation in overall food inflation—both increases and slowdowns—has been closely tied to price movements in these categories. 

The analysis links rising prices in these foods to the impact of extreme weather on agricultural production.

Recent years have seen:

• multiple poor harvests linked to adverse weather conditions
• disruptions to global supply chains for key commodities
• increased volatility in production volumes and yields 

Three of the worst harvests on record have occurred during this decade, associated with extreme weather events.

These impacts affect both domestically produced and imported foods, reflecting the global nature of food supply chains.

The UK imports a significant proportion of its food, increasing exposure to climate impacts overseas:

• Around 40% of food consumed in the UK is imported
• Many staple products—such as coffee, chocolate and some fruits—cannot be produced domestically at scale

This means that climate shocks in other regions can directly influence UK food prices.

Looking ahead, government projections suggest that:

• Over half of UK imports of certain food categories (including fruit and legumes) could come from climate‑vulnerable countries by 2050 

Food price increases have had a direct impact on household finances:

• Climate-related impacts added an estimated£360 to the average UK household food bill in 2022–23
• Overall food prices are projected to be around 50% higher by late 2026 compared to mid‑2021 levels

Food is a significant component of household spending, particularly for lower-income households, meaning these changes have broader distributional effects.