The long tail of a hot summer: milk, fodder and beef after summer 2026
Analysis of UK milk delivery data from farms shows record summer heat had an unprecedented impact on UK milk production, costing farmers over 240 million litres in production, worth over £83 million
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Analysis of daily milk delivery data from farms shows record summer heat had an unprecedented impact on UK milk production, costing farmers over 240 million litres in production, worth over £83 million
As the UK sweltered through its hottest summer on record, UK dairy farmers underdelivered by millions of litres, equivalent to over 95 Olympic swimming pools.
Deliveries fell below expected in May and then remained below expected for the rest of the summer. The shortfall gap widened each month: -2.5% below in May, -4.1% in June, -5% in July and -6.2% in August.
The summer heat also impacted summer grass growth, with growth to date as of September 4 at approximately 86% of the long-term average, the second short season in a row. Nationally, this shortfall is enough to feed the UK cattle herd for 2 months.
Last year’s drought sent hay prices up by more than 80% over winter. With hay currently trading at similar levels to 2025, and farmers forced to dip into winter forage stores, the conditions for another price spike are in place.
A second tight forage winter risks exacerbating pressures on UK livestock farmers, with herd culls on the rise in the UK’s most drought-stricken region. This could cause more beef supply now, and less into next year.