The pot-holed Road to Zero

Anticipation, excitement, the belief that “this is it”. Finally, it’s arrived. No, not the England football team’s world cup success, but the “Road to Zero” (RTZ) - the Government strategy document that energy and transport nerds alike have been waiting (months) for.

Why is this important? Well, the simple fact is that surface transport now holds the dubious crown of being the sector that emits the most greenhouse gas emissions in the UK.

Of these emissions, cars, vans and HGVs account for almost 90% - which is exactly the area covered in RTZ. Cars alone account for over 50%. In short, this is an important document in the UK's fight to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The UK has made a start though - ‘alternatively fuelled vehicles’ (AFVs) now make up about 5% of new sales every month, although the vast majority of these vehicles have the capacity to burn petrol or diesel. In a zero emission world, most of these cars would not be allowed. Remember, this document is entitled the “Road to Zero”, not ‘Road to somewhere above zero”

So, logically this document should do two things: 1) tell us what the milestones of the road look like; and 2) arrive at a destination where there are zero emissions from road transport in a reasonable timeframe. These are the fundamental requirements of the document. Did it succeed? Well, the short answer is yes, and no.

Timescales

The Government have clearly decided that 2040 is the reasonable timeframe, although it would be remiss not to point out that electric vehicle leaders Norway’s ban on conventional vehicle sales starts in 2025, and India, China, Slovenia, Austria, Israel, Ireland and Holland are all committed to a 2030 ban. Scotland’s ban starts in 2032. Others thought that 2030 was a more appropriate timeframe, including the metro mayors of London, the West Midlands and Manchester. Even the CEO of Shell supports 2030 (and Shell obviously has a lot to lose if cars go electric).

So apart from the lack of ambition on timescales, amazingly, the Road to Zero also leaves the door open to the fact that some new cars will be able to be driven some distance using petrol or diesel in 2040. All new cars will have “significant zero emission capability”. So cars in 2040 will have to be at least a plug-in hybrid - but hybrids have combustion engines in them (again, to contrast internationally, Ireland are banning the sale of new cars with tailpipes from 2030. No wriggle room there at all).

There are specific commitments with specific timeframes in RTZ though. For instance, 100% of central Government’s car fleet will be ultra low emission by 2030, and 50% of new car sales and 40% of new van sales should be ultra low by 2030. It should be noted that these targets are still short of the Committee on Climate Change’s ask for policies that ensure 60% of new vehicle sales are electric by 2030.

Crucially though, the plan has focussed on the near term specifics of charging infrastructure. In fact, this is an excellent near-term ‘tactical’ document for boosting the uptake of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Reading between the lines, Government clearly believe that get the charging infrastructure right and the rest will flow (as every fan of cheesy 80s films knows, if you build it, they will come. And as every waistcoat-wearing manager knows, get the system right, and the players win). Highlights include a £400m charging infrastructure investment fund that has been set up, a call for all new street lighting columns to include charging points (nothing about retrofitting though), and all new homes to have a chargepoint available. However, the main highlight of RTZ is the simple fact that Government has recognised that regardless of how they get there, many more public chargepoints will be needed in just a few years.

Also recognised is the fact that electric vehicles can have a positive effect on the national grid and electricity demand. One small innocuous line on page 87 could be crucial: “… by 2019 all government supported chargepoint installations will have to have smart functionality”. 2019 is just five months away; effectively the Government has just killed the ‘dumb’ charger market, and really opened up electric vehicles to the power market. Since most home chargers will be bought at the same time as an electric vehicle is bought, and most future electric vehicles have not been bought yet, that is a huge future market right there. In short, expect to see more vehicle-focussed offerings from energy companies (such as OVO Energy’s current V2G trial).

Unanswered questions

RTZ has other aspects to it, including the most blatant implicit attempted ‘automotive market grab’ ever seen in a Government document. (I know, you’re thinking “what is he talking about”? Hear me out).