Comment: Paris Agreement pledges 'need boost' to keep global warming well below 2 Celsius, study finds

A new scientific analysis (Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C), published today in the journal Nature [1], finds that Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) put forward as part of the Paris Agreement on climate change [2] will reduce emissions compared with current policy scenarios, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100.

Commenting on the study, Richard Black, Director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said: “The Paris Agreement was a major step forward in a number of ways, and this paper illustrates two of them. Firstly, it led to governments pledging significant constraints on greenhouse gas emissions – and secondly, it’s set up a process that will show people regularly how those governments are doing both against their promises and against the timetable laid out by climate science.

“As Rogelj and his team shows, the existing pledges won’t meet the goal governments set of keeping global warming well below 2 Celsius.

"But if you look at real-world events since December – Asian countries cancelling coal projects, oil companies generating 2 Celsius scenarios, European nations setting tougher emission goals – we see that the Paris deal is already giving governments new confidence and strengthening the challenges facing fossil fuel companies. And all that will in turn enable governments to agree tighter targets in the years ahead.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

1.Rogelj et al. (2016). Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C. Nature 534, 631-639

2.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreementhttps://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf

For further information please contact:

Richard Black, director, ECIU, Tel: 07912 583 328, email: richard.black@eciu.net