National Grid Electricity System Operator's Winter Outlook for 2024: comment

National Grid say they expect to have sufficient operational surplus throughout winter in their Base Case, even when they consider the expected natural variation of demand, wind and outages.

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By Jess Ralston

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Responding to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO)'s Winter Outlook report for 2024 [1], Jess Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said:

"Some more wiggle room in electricity supply this winter proves that the UK's net zero transition is delivering reliable power, increasingly from renewable sources like offshore wind. We're expecting to see the last bit of coal generation ahead of the winter as the last plant shuts.

The fly in the ointment would be more volatility in wholesale gas prices. Many analyses, including from the OBR [2], have pointed to the risk of gas dependence, including the burden it could add to national debt. Anyone who’s paid an energy bill in the past couple of years also knows what that looks like. With the price of North Sea gas set by international markets and reserves already running out, more renewables, insulating homes and switching to heat pumps will do much more to ensure the energy we use increasingly comes from within our borders."

Notes to editors:

1. National Grid ESO's Winter Outlook is expected to be released at 0900 on Thursday 6th June 2024.


For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: +44 (0)7894 571 153, email: