New record: 1,000 flood warnings issued for England’s best farmland…

New analysis [1] by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) of Environment Agency flood warnings and alerts data reveals the increasing risk posed by extreme weather to England’s best farmland. The analysis comes ahead of the Met Office’ State of the UK Climate report, expected later this week [2].

Last winter, 1008 flood warnings were issued on grade 1 and 2 farmland, our most productive land, up from a previous high of 775 in the winter of 2019/20. Flood warnings indicate that flooding is ‘expected’ in an area. As well as a record high number of warnings, 3344 flood alerts were also issued on grade 1 and 2 land, which indicate that flooding is ‘possible’. This again is an all time high, smashing the previous winter record of 2808 set in 2019/20.

When considering just grade 1 farmland, the best land used for high value crops such as vegetables, bread wheat and potatoes, over 11% was hit by at least one flood warning last winter. On top of this, many farmers struggled with waterlogged fields and failed to get crops established. The combination of unprecedented flood risk and the sheer volume of rain saturating soils may have reduced this year’s harvest by up to a fifth [3], knocking nearly a billion pounds off arable farm revenues [4]. A study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) published in May this year [5] estimated that the UK’s wet winter was made four times more likely due to climate change, with rain on stormy days 20% heavier.

Commenting on the analysis, Tom Lancaster, land food and farming analyst at ECIU said, “Farmers have been hit hard by extreme weather linked to climate change last winter, and it’s clear now that climate change presents a systemic risk to our best farmland, and therefore our food security.

“With much of England’s best farmland low lying and in flood plains, the increasing likelihood of extreme weather that climate change brings presents an outsized risk for UK food production. The good news is the Government’s green farming schemes can help farmers become more resilient to these impacts, by improving soil health and planting trees to slow flood waters, but further support will be needed to help farmers adapt. Fundamentally though, moving faster to net zero emissions is the only way to stop these risks from escalating.”

Recent polling [6] for ECIU by More in Common suggested that farmers felt extreme weather would be the biggest threat to food security in the next ten years, with 46% of farmers identifying this as an issue. 60% of those farmers polled flagged that climate change will have a negative impact on their business, and 72% of farmers were worried about climate change.

Colin Chappell, a farmer from Lincolnshire and member of the Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN), whose farm was hit by two flood warnings and nine flood alerts last winter said, “The winter we’ve just been through was the worst I can remember, and fills me with dread for what climate change might mean for my business and our industry. On our farm, we’ve struggled to get crops in the ground, with fields flooded and soils saturated.

“Climate change is hitting farmers like me here and now, and affecting our best farmland more than most. For the sake of our food security, we need to get a handle on our emissions before it’s too late while also creating a joined-up system of land management to make farming more resilient."

Grade 1 farmland covers around 355,000 hectares, or 3.1% of all agricultural land in England, and grade 2 covers 1.8m hectares, or 16% of farmland. Despite its small area, grade 1 in particular is vital for sectors such as horticulture, as it is particularly well suited to fruit, winter vegetables and salad crops. These are the highest value crops produced by British farmers, but sectors where self-sufficiency is low at just 16% for fruit and 53% for vegetables [7]. The particular vulnerability of these low lying grade 1 soils to flooding raises questions about efforts to boost production of UK fruit and vegetables [8] at a time of increasing climate impacts.

The amount of rain during storms is a key factor in the severity of flood risk. According to the WWA, the level of rain during storms last winter would have been a one in 50 year event without climate change, but at current levels of warming it is expected to occur once every 5 years. The flood prone nature of our best farmland therefore presents a serious challenge for farmers growing our highest value crops, in a context where flood risk is only likely to increase without more urgent action on climate change.

Just last week the Climate Change Committee [9] judged that there had been no progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from farming and land use since 2008, and called for more urgent action to create new woodlands, restore peatland and tackle livestock emissions.

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New record: 1,000 flood warnings issued for England’s best farmland last winter

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Distribution of funding across different land management schemes in England

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