Seventh Carbon Budget: comment and background

"Unless we stop adding greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, climate change will worsen and so will the extreme weather events that come with it, like the recent wildfires in LA. Net zero is a scientific concept to ensure that the UK does its bit to limit those emissions, and so global warming. The Climate Change Act and its carbon budgets are milestones along the road to net zero, with the legislation in the UK leading the rest of the world and setting an example that other countries have followed.

"Phasing out gas boilers for electric heat pumps is going to be crucial for the UK’s energy independence, as sticking with the status quo will simply mean importing more gas from abroad as the North Sea continues its inevitable decline. Heat pumps can run on British renewable electricity, are much more efficient and produce no air pollution, whereas gas boilers release nitrous oxides. Energy security is national security, and at a time of fragile geopolitics if the UK is to insulate itself from actors like Putin, the UK will need to continue to electrify its heating to avoid the ongoing gas prices spikes and threats.
 
On farming and land use, Tom Lancaster, ECIU land food and farming analyst said: “The Climate Change Committee makes it clear that, after over a decade of delay, now is the time to tackle emissions from farming and land use, and realise the power of Britain’s nature to absorb carbon. With climate impacts hammering farmers and farming, this is vital for the UK’s future food security. Without more urgent action now, we risk the terrible harvest we saw last year becoming the new normal.
 
“The recommendations are ambitious, but many are hugely popular, such as new woods and forests, and could help clean up our rivers, restore nature and reduce flood risk. Agriculture will also decarbonise much more slowly and less completely than almost all other sectors, with a range of opportunities for farmers to generate new revenue from the policies being recommended. We know farmers are deeply concerned about climate change and see extreme weather as one of the biggest threats to their business. Delivering on this advice will address this threat and make our food production more resilient by boosting soil health and productivity, and planting more trees and hedges to reduced flood risk and soil erosion.”

On aviation, Colin Walker, Head of Transport at ECIU said: “As aviation is forecast to become one of the UK’s largest sources of carbon emissions, there will likely be lots of scaremongering about the measures that would be needed to bring emissions down. The good news is that the UK’s net zero ambitions can be hit with even a modest increase in the number of passengers that we see today – no need for people to give up their annual holidays abroad.

“With 70% of the UK’s flights taken by just 15% of the population, measures such as frequent flyer levies could keep a handle on growing passenger numbers by ensuring that it’s those who are responsible for most of the pollution actually pay. Sustainable Aviation Fuels are not going to be available in sufficient quantities to offset all the extra emissions that further airport expansion would create." 

On food and diet, Professor Hugh Montgomery, chair of Intensive Care Medicine at University College London said, “As a doctor, the consequences of people eating too much red and processed meat and of diets high in fat and sugar, are seen in the patients who fill our wards. Such food is often cheap, meaning that the poor suffer too - from obesity, diabetes and dementia, cancer and coronary disease and more. The price is paid in patient suffering, in health services failing, and in the tax bill. Eating a bit less meat and a bit less often, and moving to poultry or pork by preference, will be good not just for cutting emissions, but for our health as well.”
 

Media Briefing: Climate Change Committee advice on Seventh Carbon Budget 

Background

On 26th February 2025, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) will publish its advice for meeting the 7th Carbon Budget (CB7), which will run 2038-2042.

The purpose of this document is to provide background on the Climate Change Act, the carbon budget process and the policy areas expected to be covered in the CCC’s CB7 advice including agriculture/food, aviation, power, industry and home heating.

The Climate Change Act

• The Climate Change Act 2008 (CCA) was passed in November 2008.
• The legislative process saw cross party support with only five (Conservative) MPs voting against the Bill at Second Reading.
• The Committee on Climate Change (now the Climate Change Committee - CCC) powers are invested in Part 2 of the Act which formally took effect in December 2008.
• The act includes a 2050 emissions reduction target and then provision for a series of ‘carbon budgets’, five-yearly emissions milestones to keep on track towards that long-term target – to balance against often-short term political priorities of Governments.
• The Act initially committed the UK to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 level but included a provision for Parliament to change the target.
• In 2019, the UK became the first major economy to commit to a net zero emissions target with the Act amended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 100% by 2050.
• The commitment to net zero by 2050 is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s recommendation that “to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and prevent the worst impacts of climate change”, globally we must reach net zero around 2050.

Carbon Budgets

• The CCA provides a system of carbon budgeting.
• Each carbon budget provides a five-year statutory cap on total greenhouse gas emissions.
• The CCC produces its recommendation for how much emissions should be reduced during the carbon budget period for the Government to consider, which then puts forward its proposal to Parliament,
  • The Carbon budgets are set 12 years in advance through secondary legislation. This means Parliament has the power to scrutinise and vote on whether to approve the Carbon Budget.
  • The Secretary of State must lay a proposed budget and policies for meeting the Carbon Budgets before parliament, the most recent being the Net Zero Strategy (and the revised “Carbon Budget Delivery plan”) for CB6.
• So far six carbon budgets have been set into law covering the period of 2008 to 2037.
  • The first three were set in 2008 (2008-2012; 2013-2017; 2018-2022);
  • Fourth (2023-27) in 2011;
  • Fifth in 2016, limits UK greenhouse gas emissions from all sources – excluding aviation and shipping to 1725 MtCO2 between 2028-32;
  • Sixth carbon budget set in 2021 for the period 2033-2037, was first budget to be set in line with the net zero target. Requires 78% reduction in average annual UK emissions by 2035 to 1990 levels..
• The seventh carbon budget (‘CB7’) will cover the period 2038-2042.

Do other countries have similar legislation?

• The CCA was one of the first comprehensive climate laws, specifically which creates an overarching governance structure for a country’s climate responses.
• Now 66 countries how some kind of climate change governance framework in place, with the Grantham Institute at LSE finding that the CCA “enhanced Britain’s standing as an international climate leader” and was one of the “key factors” that enabled the UK to play a key architectural role when negotiating the Paris Agreement, inspiring other countries to take action.
• 145 countries now have some kind of net zero commitment and 84% of global GDP is covered by some form of net zero target.

Cross-party support in establishing the CCA

• The CCA was passed in 2008 by the then Labour Government. But that legislation was proceeded by extensive campaigning by the Conservatives in opposition. The House of Commons library states that “the Bill gained cross-party support in both Houses and several amendments were made, such as new clauses giving Parliament a greater scrutiny role”.
  • Just before the 2005 General Election, three backbench MPs (Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat) presented a model climate change Bill to the House of Commons. 
  • In May 2005 an ‘early day motion’ was launched with over 400 signatories, more than half of which were Conservatives, calling for a Climate Change Act.
• Before it was signed into law, the draft Bill was subject to pre-legislative scrutiny by two House of Commons select committees and a Commons and Lords joint committee.
• During the process of the CCA through Parliament, the Conservative opposition of the time called for the legislation to be more ambitious, specifically:
  • They argued for an enhanced role for the CCC in setting targets as well as advising on them
  • They argued that emissions from aviation and shipping “should not be exempt from accounting for the pollution for which their sectors are responsible”
  • During the debate, the then Shadow Environment Minister Greg Barker said: “What we need to follow the Bill is a really ambitious transformational set of policies, which will allow an incoming Conservative Government to effect the sort of dynamic changes that have been so absent during the past 10 years”.
• The Carbon Budgets covering the period from 2008 – 2023 were bought in under the last Labour Government (Brown). The CCC stated in July 24that the Government had met its third Carbon budget. The Conservatives brought forward the next three Carbon Budgets, up to the last one, CB6.
  • CB4 came in under David Cameron and the Coalition Government
  • CB5 was agreed by the Government in July 2016 (May Government bought forward but Cameron Government began the work). The Government then published the Clean Growth Strategy in October 2017 setting out a pathway for meeting it.
  • CB6, the first to be aligned with net zero, came into force in June 2021 under the Johnson government. At the time Johnson said: “We want to continue to raise the bar on tackling climate change, and that’s why we’re setting the most ambitious target to cut emissions in the world. The UK will be home to pioneering businesses, new technologies and green innovation as we make progress to net zero emissions, laying the foundations for decades of economic growth in a way that creates thousands of jobs. We want to see world leaders follow our lead and match our ambition in the run up to the crucial climate summit COP26, as we will only build back greener and protect our planet if we come together to take action.”

How did the target become net zero?

• Reaching net zero emissions is necessary to halt climate change worsening as it means no longer adding more emissions into the atmosphere – any residual must be balanced by removing carbon from the atmosphere.
• In 2015 the then Conservative Government played a pivotal role in helping to negotiate the Paris Agreement, under which every nation agreed to constraint emissions in a bid to tackle climate change. The Paris Agreement sets out that countries will “hold warming to well below 2°C” and “pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C”.
• In 2018, the Government requested advice from the Climate Change Committee on whether the UK needed to review its 2050 emissions target, under the Climate Change Act, to meet international climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement,
• The CCC published a 277 page report in May 2019 stating that a target of net-zero greenhouse gases by 2050 was necessary for the UK to meet its commitments as a signatory to the agreement.
• In their advice, the CCC said:
  • “A net-zero GHG target for 2050 will deliver on the commitment that the UK made by signing the Paris Agreement. It is achievable with known technologies, alongside improvements in people’s lives, and within the expected economic cost that Parliament accepted when it legislated the existing 2050 target for an 80% reduction from 1990”
  • “We conclude that net-zero is necessary, feasible and cost-effective”, “Feasible – because the technologies and approaches that will deliver net-zero are now understood and can be implemented with strong leadership from government.”

Polling

• The most recent poll has support for the net zero target at 65%, with 22% opposed. Likewise, most people believe the Government should be doing more to tackle climate change (45% in latest poll) with 15% saying that the Government is “doing too much”.
• 73% of those who switched from Conservative to Labour or Liberal Democrat at the 2024 General Election, support the net zero target. Only 8% of Reform voters said energy policy was the reason for voting for the party.

CB7 policy specific areas

Agriculture and land use

Reducing emissions from agriculture and land use is expected to be an important part of the CB7 advice. By 2038, agriculture and land use are expected to be one of the sectors with the largest share of emissions, as other sectors such as surface transport decarbonise.

The advice may cover the degree of land use change needed to meet net zero (following on from Defra’s land use framework, published on 31st January), dietary change, the uptake of methane inhibiting feed additives and other aspects such as lowland peat.

Key facts and stats:

• Farming is hit by climate change more than any other industry. There has just been one of the worst harvests on record, and extreme weather is one of the main challenges farmers identify for their future in farming. Possibly because of this, farmers show strong support for net zero, with 72% supportive of the target, and stand to benefit from the payments that will be needed to achieve the scale of land use change the CCC say is needed.
• Livestock farming accounts for nearly two thirds of agricultural emissions, and uses 85% of UK farmland, providing 32% of calories.
• Between 2008 and 2019, average meat consumption per person per day decreased from 104g of meat to 86g - a reduction of 17%. On average UK adults eat 35% more protein than is recommended and 34% eat more red and processed meat than the amount recommended. With diets continuing to change, consumption could reduce in line with production to avoid offshoring the UK’s food footprint.
• More woods, trees and healthy peatlands are needed to reduce flood risk for towns and villages downstream, restore British nature and clean up our rivers.
• An overwhelming 84% of people support  new woodlands to tackle climate change. Farmers could be paid to plant trees and can incorporate trees into a productive farm through agroforestry, providing shade and shelter for livestock and new sources of revenue.
• There are precedents both in the UK and overseas for scale and pace of change in how land is used, with 30-40,000ha of new woodland planted in the UK throughout the 1970s and 1980s.

Aviation

In the years leading up to the 7th carbon budget, emissions from certain sectors, such as surface transport, are expected to have fallen considerably. By contrast, reductions in emissions from aviation are expected to be much less significant, given the limited set of short-term options available to decarbonise the sector. As a consequence, by 2038, aviation is expected to have become the most significant source of CO2 emissions in the UK, alongside agriculture & land.  

Key facts and stats:

• Currently, more than half (53%) of people do not fly every year and a further quarter (23%) only fly once a year. Conversely, 70% of the UK’s flights are taken by 15% of the population.
• Frequent flyer levies have been proposed to focus on the small percentage of the population that flies multiple times a year causing the most pollution without having an impact on families going on an annual holiday. Such a policy has the backing of 62% of the public.
• The CCC has previously made it clear that the UK’s net zero ambitions can be achieved with no reduction in the number of flights that we take today. In its 6th carbon budget, the CCC allows for some limited growth in aviation demand – a 25% increase by 2050, compared to 2018 levels. However, unconstrained growth would need to be prevented. According to the CCC, “any net increase in UK airport capacity [needs to be] balanced by reductions in capacity elsewhere”.
• Much of the economic case for airport expansion rests on the assumption that it will increase business traveller numbers – but business travel has been falling for the last 20 years. Furthermore, the UK already runs a £41bn tourism deficit. Airport expansion will likely make this worse by encouraging more people to take their disposal income out of the UK and spend it abroad. 
• By the time of the seventh carbon budget, Sustainable Aviation Fuels are expected to account for around 22% of jet fuel. This means that the majority of the fuel being burnt by aeroplanes will still be hydrocarbons. Even this 22% figure is optimistic – for example, the Government planned to have 5 SAF plants under construction in 2025 - none have been started. This means that SAFs will not be available in the quantities required to offset the extra emissions that net increases in UK airport capacity would create,

Other – Power, industry and home heating

The power sector is expected to be decarbonised by the time of CB7.

It is likely that the CCC will recommend continuing the roll out of renewables in line with Government targets, including a strategic reserve of gas power plants that can be fitted with carbon capture technology for continued use into the 2040s.

Additionally, it is likely to recommend ensuring that the Government’s upcoming industrial strategy provides encouragement and support for decarbonisation. It may recommend linking up the UK and EU Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs).

The CB7 advice is expected to feature large emissions reductions from home heating as gas boilers are phased out. However, current government policies are unlikely to deliver these emissions reductions, as the Boiler Upgrade Scheme and Clean Heat Market Mechanism do not extend beyond 2030 or 2026 respectively. A phase out date for purchasing a new gas boiler may also be recommended to take effect just before the CB7 period.

The CCC is expected to make recommendations around lowering the cost of domestic electricity, e.g. by rebalancing levies that are currently disproportionately on electricity compared to gas, as it has done since 2019.

Key facts and stats:

• Gas prices reached a 2 year high in early February, which will filter down to bills eventually, with a 3-month time lag on Ofgem’s price cap.
• The UK has spent £140bn on wholesale gas since the start of the crisis, £90bn more than it would have without the gas crisis. This equates to an extra £1,300 per person.
• The Energy Crisis Commission, made up of energy industry and business groups, consumer advice bodies and independent experts found that because of the UK’s reliance on gas for home heating and power generation, it remains “dangerously unprepared” for another gas crisis. It recommended that the UK moves away from gas boilers for heat and gas power generation, as well as reform energy markets and stopping gas setting the price for electricity, to shield households from another gas price spike.
• As North Sea output continues its inevitable decline, without a switch to heat pumps, the UK will become ever more dependent on gas imports.
• Today, a typical household (with a gas boiler and petrol car) depends on imports for almost 70% of its energy, or 17 megawatt hours (MWh) a year. A well-insulated home with a heat pump and an electric uses 55% less imported energy, at around 7.5MWh a year. These differences will only get starker as we get closer to 2050.
• In 2050, the North Sea will produce 95% less gas per year than today, even with new oil and gas licenses. If there are no new oil and gas licenses issued, it falls by 97%.
• Similarly for oil, in 2050 the North Sea will produce 85% less oil per yearthan in 2024 even with new licenses, falling to 89% without new licenses.
• UK gas production is currently twice as polluting as the gas being imported via pipelines from Norway, which makes up more than half of Britain's imports.
• Most of what remains in the North Sea is oil, and the oil produced here is 27% more polluting than typical UK oil imports. The UK is in the bottom half of environmental impact for oil producers ranked 38th out of the 66 nations where data is available. 
• Gas boilers and hobs produce nitrous oxide air pollution, which only 1 in 4 people in the UK are aware of, according to an ECIU poll. Gas boilers produce less than 1 unit of heat for every unit of energy inputted, and heat pumps are 3x more efficient.

Carbon dioxide removals

Removing CO2 from the atmosphere can cancel out emissions. Other greenhouse gases can also be removed from the atmosphere, but these methods are less developed, and so ‘removals’ refers almost entirely to carbon dioxide removals (CDR).

CDR is essential for reaching net zero whilst hard-to-fix sectors continue to emit greenhouse gases e.g. CO2 from aviation and methane, NOx and CO2 from land-use.

CDR methods fall into two broad groups (with some overlap):

• Nature/land-based methods of absorbing and storing carbon e.g. planting trees, restoring peatland, improving soil management, and using biomass e.g. durable wood products, sinking biomass, biochar, etc
• Engineered removals e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), mineralisation to store CO2 underground, manufacture of mineral-based building materials, and removal of CO2 from the oceans to allow them to absorb further atmospheric CO2

Key facts and stats:

• In the UK’s 6th Carbon Budget, the CCC’s Balanced Pathway envisaged removals accounting for c.60Mt/yr by 2050. These removals would mostly be achieved using BECCS in various settings (power generation, hydrogen production, etc), with small roles for some other CDR methods e.g. DACCS would account for just 10% of removals by 2050.
• The 7th Carbon Budget is expected to continue to envisage BECCS playing a major role in removals. The CCC will update projections about other removals methods based on the latest data about readiness and costs. There could be a larger (albeit it still fairly small) role for methods such as DACCS, and there could also be the inclusion for the first time of methods (e.g. new biomass options or mineralisation methods). Some other methods (e.g. ocean-based) are being trialed in the UK, but might still be considered to be insufficiently developed and costed for inclusion.
• In addition to methods classed as removals, the 6th Carbon Budget included removals of c.40Mt/yr by 2050 from land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sinks such as peatland and woodland such that other sectors could emit a total of almost 100Mt/yr whilst the UK reached net zero. These land-use methods are discussed in the section on agriculture.