Summer drought costs UK arable farmers over £800m – new analysis

The new analysis [1] by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) comes ahead of data from Defra next week, which will confirm provisional production estimates for this year’s UK harvest. [2] Earlier data confirmed it to be the second worst on record for England, [3] with the UK harvest expected to be similarly poor. 

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said, “This has been another torrid year for many farmers in the UK, with the pendulum swinging from too wet, to too hot and dry. British farmers have once again been left counting the costs of climate change, with four fifths now concerned about their ability to make a living due to the fast changing climate. [4]

“With confidence in the sector at rock bottom, there is an urgent need to ensure farmers are better supported to adapt to these climate shocks and build their resilience as the bedrock of our food security. In this context, the delays to the re-launch of vital green farming schemes are the last thing the industry needs. Ultimately though, more concerted effort from industry and government will be needed to transition land use and agriculture to greener, more resilient methods. Without reaching net zero emission there is no way to limit impacts like this from making food production in the UK ever more difficult.” 

The value of UK production for five staple arable crops [5] is estimated to be £3.4 billion in 2025, based on estimated production and current ex-farm prices. [6] This is down 20% compared to the 10-year average, [7] or £828m. This loss follows heavy losses in 2024 [8] after heavy winter rainfall, made worse by climate change, [9] hit production as farmers couldn’t access waterlogged and flooded fields to drill and manage crops. Including 2020, the worst harvest on record following similarly extreme winter rainfall in 2019/20, lost revenue this decade associated with the impact of extreme weather is now over £2 billion for UK arable farmers.  

David Lord, an arable farmer from Essex [10] said, “With costs rising faster than prices, I’m not sure how many more years like this we can take as an industry. As a farmer, I’m used to taking the rough with the smooth, but recent years have seen near constant extreme rainfall, heat and drought. As a crop farmer, it’s getting to the point with climate change where I can’t take the risk of investing in a new crop of wheat or barley because the return on that investment is just so uncertain. 

“Green farming schemes are a vital lifeline for me, helping build my resilience to these shocks whilst providing cashflow to help buffer me financially. But with the schemes closed and no clarity on their future, too many farmers are locked out, unable to access the support they need to adapt whilst facing a wider agriculture policy that does too little to build our resilience and too often works against it.” 

The poor harvest in 2025 has been compounded by low farmgate prices for these crops, which have come down from a peak in 2022. However, almost all of the shortfall in revenue estimated by ECIU is a function of lower production, with prices now close to the 10-year average. The low prices now reflect the fact that the UK is too small to have an influence on global prices of these key commodity crops. With no market effect on prices to cushion the blow of this lost production, UK farmers are particularly exposed to the impact of climate shocks.  

Compared to the last ‘normal’ harvest in 2023, when prices were high following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a combination of lower prices now and lower production means UK farmers stand to generate over £1.5bn less in revenue this year than they did in 2023.  

The analysis comes ahead of a long awaited review [11] into farm profitability by Baroness Batters, the former president of the National Farmers Union (NFU), which is due to be published in the coming weeks ahead of Christmas.  

Notes to editors:
 

1. ECIU Analysis: Estimated financial losses faced by UK farmers due dry weather impacts on key arable crops
2. Defra is due to publish the first UK-wide 2025 production estimate for cereals and oilseeds on 11th December at 9.30am. These follow estimates for England published in October. In the absence of UK-wide production figures, this analysis uses England per hectare yield figures from Defra’s October release and combines them with crop area estimates from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board to estimate overall production in 2025. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/cereal-and-oilseed-production-estimates-in-the-united-kingdom-at-1-june-2025
3. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/england-has-second-worst-harvest-on-record-comment
4. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/farmer-confidence-battered-by-climate-change-new-research
5. The analysis looked at wheat, spring and winter barley, oats and oilseed rape. These are the principal arable crops grown in the UK. Although sector level revenue is markedly down for oilseed rape compared to the 2015-24 10-year average, this is a function of lower crop area. Per hectare oilseed rape yields in 2025 were well above average, and good prices mean that this was the best performing arable crop in 2025 for many farm businesses. [This note was amended to add more information on oilseed rape on Thu 4 Dec]
6. https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/ex-farm-prices-summary
7. Between 2015 and 2024
8. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/uk-farmers-lose-1bn-from-extreme-wet-winter-comment-on-new-defra-data
9. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/autumn-and-winter-storms-over-uk-and-ireland-are-becoming-wetter-due-to-climate-change/
10. David Lord farms farms 750 hectares in Essex, managing a system that revolves around soil conservation and regeneration using cover cropping, diverse rotations and direct drilling to reduce inputs and improve biodiversity on the land he farms. He is a member of the Nature Friendly Farming Network England Steering Group https://www.nffn.org.uk/who-we-are
11. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/farming-profitability-review-terms-of-reference  

For more information or for interview requests:

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst, ECIU, Tel: 0770 300 6738, email: tom.lancaster@eciu.net