UK, US, Ethiopia see food price shocks from climate extremes, ‘raising concerns’ for child health
Foods including potatoes, onions, lettuce, cabbage, fruit and rice hit by extreme weather that exceeded historical precedent, raising inflation and prices for consumers.
By George Smeeton
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British potatoes, Californian vegetables, South African maize and Indian onions are among many foods affected by recent price shocks driven by climate extremes, according to a team of international scientists.
The study [1], led by Maximillian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, investigated examples across 18 countries over a two-year period (2022-2024) where price spikes were associated with heat, drought and heavy precipitation that was so extreme it exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020. [map in notes]
In the UK, potato prices increased 22% (from Jan to Feb 2024) following extreme winter rainfall that scientists said was made 20% heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change [2]. In California and Arizona in the United States, vegetable prices increased 80% in November 2022 after the extreme drought in western states [3]. In Ethiopia, food prices were 40% higher in March 2023 following the 2022 drought [4].
Research by the Food Foundation [5] shows that, on average, healthy food is twice as expensive per calorie as less healthy food. When prices increase, low-income households are likely to cut back on nutritious foods like fruit and vegetables because they can’t afford them.
Climate change-induced food price shocks could therefore exacerbate a range of health outcomes, from malnutrition (not getting enough nutrients, which is a particular concern for children) to a range of chronic diet-related conditions including coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and many cancers. There is also a growing body of evidence connecting food insecurity and poor diets with mental health outcomes.
Maximillian Kotz, Marie Curie Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Barcelona Supercomputing Center and lead author of the study, said: “Until we get to net zero emissions extreme weather will only get worse, but it's already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world.
“People are noticing, with rising food prices number two on the list of climate impacts they see in their lives, second only to extreme heat itself [6].
“Sadly, when the price of food shoots up, low-income families often have to resort to less nutritious, cheaper foods. Diets like this have been linked to a range of health conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart disease."
Shona Goudie, Policy and Advocacy Manager at The Food Foundation, said: “Healthy food shouldn’t be a luxury, but soaring food prices in recent years have made it increasingly difficult for parents to afford to put healthy food on the table for their families. In fact, the latest government data shows that Brits are consuming far below the required minimum of five fruit and veg a day.
“Increasingly frequent price shocks due to climate change could see food insecurity and health inequalities deteriorate even further without action from Government – which is particularly concerning for children given that good nutrition is essential for them to grow up healthy. Steps such as improving the Healthy Start Scheme to help low-income families afford fruit and veg, as well as making fruit and veg more available and affordable in schools, are paramount. Alongside this, we need to increase production of British fruit and veg to help increase our resilience to shocks overseas.”
Central bank mandates for controlling inflation may also become harder to deliver as increasingly extreme weather makes food prices more volatile domestically and in global markets.
The research comes ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake [8] on Sunday 27 July, where world leaders will meet to discuss threats to the global food system. The event is co-hosted by Ethiopia and Italy, both of whom have been hit by climate change-induced food price shocks and are featured in the study.
When it comes to the UK, potatoes aren’t the only British-grown commodity affected by climate change. Cereals, onions, cauliflowers and broccoli have also been hit over the past few years, all while ‘back-up’ imports from other countries have been failing due to climate impacts abroad [9].
Amber Sawyer, analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “Last year, the UK had its third worst arable harvest on record [10], and England its second worst [11], following extreme rainfall that scientists said was made worse by climate change [12].
“But it’s not just that. British farmers have been yo-yoing between extremes for the past few years. They’ve gone from having to contend with extreme heat in 2022, when temperatures reached 40°C for the first time [12], to extreme rain in 2023 [2], both of which ruined their crops. Fast forward to now, and they’ve just faced the warmest spring since records began and the sixth driest [13], followed by the second hottest June [14]. For them, climate change isn’t a distant warning: it’s a reality they’re living every day. It’s no wonder that 80% of British farmers are concerned about the impact of climate change on their ability to make a living [15].
“These extremes are also hitting consumers. In the UK, climate change added £360 to the average household food bill across 2022 and 2023 alone [16]. We’ve seen much more extreme weather since then.”
The world has currently warmed by an average of about 1.3°C [17] above pre-industrial levels, but analysis by the UN has found that the current trajectory is for around 3°C of warming [18], which it says will be ‘debilitating’.
2023 [19], the hottest year ever recorded, was then overtaken by 2024 [17]. As early as December last year, experts at the UK Met Office predicted that 2025 will be one of the top three hottest years alongside them [20]. So far this year, the UK has experienced it’s hottest spring [13] and second hottest June [14] since records began.
While the 2023/24 El Niño likely played a role in amplifying these extremes, their increased frequency and intensity is in line with the expected and observed effects of human-induced climate change.
ENDS
Notes to editors:
The research was conducted by an interdisciplinary team from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), European Central Bank (ECB), University of Aberdeen and the Food Foundation.
1.The analysis is available to download here.
A map of climate impacts on food supplies is also available to download here. Data files for this graphic are available on request.
A recording of an embargoed media briefing on the analysis can be downloaded here: https://we.tl/t-PRiZ29YQmO
5. https://foodfoundation.org.uk/publication/broken-plate-2025
7. https://foodfoundation.org.uk/initiatives/food-insecurity-tracking
8. https://www.unfoodsystemshub.org/un-food-systems-summit-4-stocktake/
9. https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2024/climate-and-food-home-and-away
15. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/farmer-confidence-battered-by-climate-change-new-research
16. https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2023/climate-fossil-fuels-and-uk-food-prices-2023
18. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
20. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/2025-global-temperature-outlook
For more information or for interview requests:
George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net