Analysis – debate on Carbon Budget 7

Net zero and industry?

The UK has experienced widespread and extensive deindustrialisation over many decades – but this began long before the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act in 2008 or legislated for net zero emissions in 2019. In fact, employment levels in, and the Gross Value Added (GVA), share of the production sector has been falling since the 1970s onwards. In 1970, the total number of workers in the production sector was 8.6 million (ONS, 2019). By 2002, it was 3.9 million. Similarly, in that same time period, the GVA share of the manufacturing sector had fallen from 30.1% to 12.8%. For millions of British households who saw their factories close and jobs lost in the 1970s and 1980s, deindustrialisation isn’t a new phenomenon, created by the UK’s pursuit of net zero targets – it’s a reality with which they’ve been living for decades.

There has been significant discussion about the impact of high industrial energy costs on the profitability of the steel industry, with UK Steel and Make UK stating that this has been a major factor in declining output. The principal cause of these high industrial energy prices in recent years has been high gas prices, driven by volatility in international energy markets which followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. UK Steel has said that the “main driver” of disparities in electricity prices between Europe and UK is “is now wholesale electricity costs, driven by the UK’s reliance on natural gas power generation”.

 Are people being required to change their diets?

There is nothing in the Climate Change Committee’s recommendations that suggests that people will be forced to change their diets, or to adopt exclusively plant-based diets.

Nationally however, there is strong evidence that growing numbers of people are choosing to change what they eat, with per capita consumption of declining since the 1970s and preferences shifting towards more varied dishes and styles of cooking. Roughly 60% less fresh red meat (beef, lamb, pork) is consumed compared to previous generations and that trend has sped up in recent years (DEFRA 2025).

Recent years have seen near unprecedented increases in food prices, with recent ECIU analysis finding that food prices are likely to have increased by 50% in November 2026 since the start of the current cost of living crisis in mid-2021.

This means that in just five years and four months food prices will have increased by 50% - an increase in prices which previously took 19 years and eight months, almost quadrupling the pace of food inflation.

Much of this inflation can be attributed to fossil fuel price shocks and the impact of extreme weather, made worse by climate change.

Should we be bothering, if the UK is just 1% of emissions?

Collectively, countries like the UK which account for around 1% or less of global emissions, are responsible for more than 30% of the world’s global emissions – more than China, the world’s single-largest emitter. If all of these countries abandoned their commitments to reaching net zero, the world would have no chance of reaching its target of achieving global net zero emissions by around the middle of this century, as agreed at the Paris Climate Agreement (Climate Trunk, 2026)."

Do net zero policies constitute the majority of the typical energy bill?

"Wholesale costs constitute by far the largest proportion of the typical energy bill (40%) followed by network costs (28%) and operating costs (17%). Policy costs represent 6.5% of the typical energy bill, according to Energy UK".

Is the Carbon Budget being voted on without proper scrutiny?

The Seventh Carbon Budget is being voted on following a lengthy period of scrutiny, including by the Environmental Audit Committee.

The Climate Change Act requires the Climate Change Committee to produce recommendations for each Carbon Budget. The government then considers these recommendations before drafting the Carbon Budget and is free to set each carbon budget higher or lower than the CCC recommends. The CCC published its advice for the Seventh Carbon Budget in February 2025 (CCC, 2025), meaning that the government has had over a year to scrutinise its recommendations and decide its own position.

Furthermore, the Carbon Budget is laid before Parliament using the affirmative procedure – this means that it cannot be enshrined in law until both Houses of Parliament to vote in favour (UK Parliament). This means that Members of Parliament have the opportunity to debate and, if they so wish, even reject the government’s Carbon Budget.

The last Carbon Budget Order (Carbon Budget Six) did not receive a full debate in the House of Commons and was dealt with by a Delegated Legislation Committee (Hansard 2021).

Will the Seventh Carbon Budget increase the cost of energy, food, and transportation?

Climate change, and the UK’s dependence on fossil fuels for heating and power, are already some of the key drivers of fuel poverty and economic insecurity in Britain.

The UK’s dependence on gas for power and heating leaves it especially exposed to the kind of volatility in international energy markets we’ve seen following the invasion of Iran. The IMF has said that the UK was the worst hit of any economy in Western Europe by the energy crisis which followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine (IMF) because of its high dependence on gas. That crisis cost the UK £183 billion – more than NHS England spent on health in 2024 / 2025 (ECIU/E3G).

Climate change is driving up food bills. Extreme weather and climate change added £361 to the average UK food bill across 2022 and 2023 (ECIU, 2025). More recently, the rising costs of just five household staples that are especially impacted by extreme weather are disproportionately impacting food price inflation which in turn is a key contributor to headline inflation (ECIU, 2026). The ECIU are also predicts that additional increases in food prices driven by the conflict in Iran and particularly the effects of rising fertiliser and energy prices; these rising food prices will have a disproportionate impact on low-income households who spend a greater proportion of their incomes on food (ECIU, 2026).

By reducing our dependence on gas, British renewables are already helping to bring down costs. Last year, in the UK, wind farms alone cut the wholesale cost of electricity by around a third (ECIU, 2026), showing how renewables can help to cut costs and shield consumers from the effects of global instability.