Around 90% of UK North Sea oil and gas ‘already drained dry’ – analysis

Official UK oil and gas statistics and projections suggest that 93% of the oil and gas that is likely to be produced from the North Sea has already been extracted. [1] 

Government data shows that 4.1 billion tonnes of oil has been extracted in the UK since 1975, with the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) projecting a further 218 million tonnes out to 2050 from existing fields. These projections suggest that new drilling could yield another 74 million tonnes, equivalent to 1.7% of the total that could be extracted from 1975 to 2050.  

For gas, the UK has produced 33,421 TWh since commercial operations began in 1967, with projected production out to 2050 of a further 2,060 TWh from existing fields and up to an extra 381 TWh (1.1% of the total) from new drilling.  

This data suggests that, for both oil and gas, 93% of the totals that could be extracted from the 1960s and 70s to 2050 has already been removed, leaving just 7% for the next 25 years. 

Industry body Offshore Energy UK (OEUK) claims that more oil and gas could be extracted by 2050. However, the ‘High Case’ scenario for future production in a report for OEUK would still mean that 92% of production has already occurred. Even the ‘No Constraints’ scenario (which is acknowledged to be “beyond realistic assumptions”) would mean that 86% of production has already happened. [2] This scenario implies a scrapping the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), which has strong support in public polling, at a time when oil and gas company profits are set to rise on the back of spiking prices. [3] More recent industry projections of future gas production – again predicated on changes to taxation – give a similar result, with 88% of gas having already been extracted by 2025. [4]  

Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, Head of Analysis at ECIU, said: “Once it’s gone, it’s gone – they aren’t making any more fossil fuels. New drilling would take years to produce anything much, and could ultimately use up the reserves that remain quicker, leaving less for the British chemicals industry in the event of future oil and gas crises which tend to come round every five to ten years. 

“The official statistics are clear that the North Sea is a mature basin and the vast majority of oil and gas have already been drained dry. Whether you drill or not, oil and gas output will continue to decline, and any extra North Sea drilling has only a comparatively small and temporary impact on the need to import foreign oil and gas. What really makes asignificant and permanent difference is using less by replacing gas power stations with renewables, gas boilers with electric heat pumps and petrol cars with EVs. 

“Any failure of Government plans to build out new wind and solar farms and swap gas boilers for electric heat pumps[5] and encourage EVs would have a much bigger impact on how much oil and gas we need to import than efforts to drill more out of the North Sea. Unless the UK gets on with clean power, control increasingly lies with actors like Putin and Trump, with conflicts like the current Middle East crisis dictating UK energy prices. 

“Some might point to fracking, but it is hugely unpopular with the public who much prefer solar farms than fracking pads in their neighbourhoods.” [6] 

UK gas production in 2025 was 74% (almost three-quarters) lower than the maximum level seen in 2000, and equated to just 49% (half) of demand in 2025. [7] Gas production will continue its steep decline, set to be 49% lower in 2030 compared to 2025 with existing production and 44% lower with the NSTA projections of new drilling. 

Compared to the maximum oil production that occurred in 1999, UK output in 2025 was 77% (over three-quarters) lower.  This was equivalent to just 55% of UK use of oil-based fuels in 2025, but the complex web of international flows to and from refineries and distribution centres means that around 95% of fuels used in the UK have been imported at some stage of their supply chain. [8] In 2030, oil production is set to be 37% lower than in 2025 with new drilling estimated by the NSTA, or 52% lower than in 2025 with no more drilling, such that imports would rise regardless. 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

1. The North Sea accounts for the overwhelming majority of UK oil and gas production, both historical and future.  Years when UK North Sea commercial oil and gas production began are stated in Extractive industries in the UK: background information on oil and gas (DESNZ, Feb-2019). 

The analysis of UK oil production used historical data up to 2024 from Historical crude oil and petroleum data: production, imports and exports (DESNZ, Jul-2025) and provisional data for 2025 from Energy Trends 3.10(DESNZ, Feb-2026).  Relevant data (in Mt) was production of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) i.e. total indigenous production less feedstocks (which are re-used refinery outflows as opposed to a primary resource).Data was also converted to TWh for comparison with gas.  Expected future levels of oil production out to 2050(with and without ‘undeveloped discoveries’ and ‘future discoveries’) were taken from Production and expenditure projections (NSTA, Feb-2026).  This source data covers only crude oil and NGLs (i.e. notfeedstocks), and was converted from Mtoe to Mt using the conversion factor implied in the dataset. 

The analysis of UK gas production used historical data (‘methane production’) up to 2024 from Historical gas data: gas production and consumption and fuel input (DESNZ, Jul-2025) and provisional data (‘gross production’ of gas) for 2025 from Energy Trends 4.2 (DESNZ, Feb-2026) – all of this source data is expressed inGWh.  Expected future levels of gas production out to 2050 (with and without ‘undeveloped discoveries’ and ‘future discoveries’) were taken from Production and expenditure projections (NSTA, Feb-2026) – source data is expressed in Mtoe, and was converted from Mtoe to TWh using the conversion factor implied in the dataset. 

2. Potential of the UKCS under different scenarios (Westwood for OEUK, Jun-2025).  Values stated in this source for 2025–2050 were adjusted to avoid double-counting production in 2025 (which was included in historical data for production that has already occurred) by subtracting the provisional values for 2025 found in ET 3.10 (see above).  Data was converted from bboe to TWh for comparison with historical oil and gas data. See slide 15 for comment: “The ‘No Constraints’ Case is considered to be beyond realistic assumptions given the current regulatory and fiscal conditions and investor sentiment. For this case to be realised, major industry change would be required.” 

3. See, for example, polling in August 2025 of people who intend to vote Reform, or are considering doing so, found that 77% support the Energy Profits Levy and 13% oppose it: YouGov Survey Results (YouGov, Aug-2026). 

4. Analysis is cited in: Gas System in Transition: Security of Supply Offshore Energies UK Consultation Response(OEUK, Feb-2026).  As above, data from this source was adjusted to avoid double-counting production in 2025.Data was converted from bcm to TWh. 

5. Analysis: Why clean energy will cut UK gas imports by more than North Sea drilling (Carbon Brief, Mar-2026)  

6. The latest Government survey data for fracking shows 40% opposition and 18% support: DESNZ Public Attitudes Tracker: Energy infrastructure and energy security, Spring 2024, UK (DENSZ, Jul-2024).   

The latest Government survey data for renewables shows 78% support and 5% opposition: DESNZ Public Attitudes Tracker: Renewable energy, Winter 2025, UK (DESNZ, Mar-2026).   

Details about support for particular types of renewables are available here: DESNZ Public Attitudes Tracker: Renewable energy, Spring 2025, UK (DESNZ, Jul-2025). 

7. Analysis of historical oil production and demand for oil-based products uses data from Energy Trends 3.10, 3.12 and 3.13 (DESNZ, Feb-2026)  

8. Analysis of historical gas production and demand uses data from Energy Trends 4.2 (DESNZ, Feb-2026) 

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, t: 020 8156 5305, m: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net