Eight in ten voters identify energy costs as top concern – while analysis finds the last crisis cost Wales nearly £6 billion
With global oil and gas prices rising as conflict in the Middle East continues, volatility in international fossil fuel markets has already cost Welsh households £3.14 billion, new study finds.

By Sam Keely
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A new study has highlighted the economic consequences of Wales’s continued dependence on volatile global fossil fuel markets, as the conflict in Iran sparks fears of another energy price crisis. New analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found that the energy crisis which followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 cost the Welsh economy £5.65 billion – more than three times as much as the Welsh Government intends on spending on education over the next year (£1.8 billion) (1).
Oil and gas prices have soared in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, prompting fears of a repeat of the energy crisis that followed the invasion of Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that Britain’s acute dependence on imported fossil fuels left it the worst hit economy in western Europe by the spike in oil and gas prices which began as world economies emerged from Covid lockdowns in 2021 and which was turbocharged by the invasion of Ukraine the following year (2). The Energy Crisis Commission has also warned that the UK as a whole remains “dangerously unprepared” for future price shocks (3).
The effects of that energy price crisis continue to be felt by households across Wales, with the ECIU finding that excess costs to households have reached £3.14 billion – averaging £2,285 per home. Residents in some of the most deprived areas of Wales, where average household incomes are lowest – including Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taf, and Newport – have paid a greater proportion of their income on excess energy costs than households in more affluent areas of Wales.
According to polling by More in Common, six in ten voters (63%) believe that the cost of the living is the biggest issue facing Wales as the country prepares for Senedd elections on May 7th, with nearly eight in ten (77%) saying that energy costs were the issue causing them to be most concerned about the cost of living (4).
Plaid Cymru spokesperson on energy and the economy Luke Fletcher MS, and fuel poverty spokesperson Sioned Williams MS, said in a joint statement:
“This important report highlights what people across Wales are already feeling daily; that the energy crisis is hitting them hard. The fact that Welsh households have paid £2,285 per home in excess direct costs because of spikes in oil and gas prices, disproportionately hitting our most deprived communities, underlines that a shift towards renewables is needed to bring down prices for households and businesses, reduce our exposure to the price shocks of fossil fuels, and help tackle anthropogenic climate change.
“Communities owning, shaping and benefiting directly from their energy should be a core component of the Welsh energy system and central to building a fairer, more sustainable and more energy-secure Wales. Capturing a greater share of the economic benefit and innovation returns accruing from the rollout of renewable energy is central to this. A Plaid Cymru Welsh Government would provide the leadership needed to deliver a fair energy transition and lower energy costs for households across Wales.”
Labour Member of the Senedd for North Wales, Carolyn Thomas, said:
“The billions spent on inflated energy bills is money that should have been circulating in our local economy, supporting jobs and improving people’s quality of life rather than flowing out of Wales altogether.
“This is a sobering report, and one that policymakers across the UK must take seriously. The evidence is clear: dependence on fossil fuels is bad for people’s pockets, bad for energy security, and bad for our environment. The lesson now must be to accelerate the transition to clean, home-grown energy so that Wales is never left this exposed again.”
This analysis also highlights the particular vulnerability of Welsh industry to volatility in global energy markets, finding that industrial energy consumers have faced nearly £1 billion (£0.95 bn) in additional costs since 2022. Manufacturing hubs in Flintshire and Wrexham have been the worst hit, shouldering excess costs of around £353 million.
Rising oil and gas prices come at a time when many energy intensive industries are already struggling with high industrial energy costs. The UK’s industrial energy costs are amongst the highest in Europe, largely because of its relative dependence on gas, according to a report from industry body Steel UK published in September last year(5).
Although the UK’s growing renewables capacity is helping to reduce the amount of time that gas is setting power prices, gas continues to do so around 85% of the time (6). For example, when UK day-ahead gas prices spike, so do electricity. There have been calls to reduce policy costs on electricity for industrial companies, although many energy intensive users are already exempt from the majority of these costs and compared to France and Germany, UK heavy industries pay less (7).
Commenting on the impact of the energy crisis on industry, Laura Emily Dunn,Senior Associate at the ECIU, said:
“Wales has a rich industrial heritage, but Welsh firms have been hit hard by some of the highest industrial energy costs in Europe, driven by our dependence on gas for power generation. The closure of the blast furnaces at Port Talbot steelworks in 2024 in the midst of the energy crisis has exacerbated concerns for the future of Welsh industry – and these fears will continue to grow if the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up global energy prices.
“Even in the highly charged context of an election campaign, it’s important that we resist efforts to politicise debates about energy policy and ensure that we’re informed by the evidence. This research tells a story of a nation and industrial sector that’s been hit hard by its continued reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets - and which remains dangerously exposed to future energy crises of the kind experts fear may follow on from the war in Iran”.
Measures designed to bring down network costs faced by industries were introduced by the UK Government in the autumn, including additional discounts for energy-intensive industries, and are due to come into effect in April 2026(8). However, there has been some criticism that the eligibility for these support schemes is too narrow (9). Further instability in global energy markers is likely to increase pressure on the government to step up support for consumers.
Notes to editors:
- https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2025-03/2025-26-welsh-government-final-budget-explainer-english.pdf
- https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/01/energy-crisis-uk-households-worst-hit-in-western-europe-finds-imf
- https://energycrisiscommission.uk/
- More in Common polling for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, 15th February – 3rd March, sample size: 851.
- https://www.uksteel.org/steel-news-2025/new-report-uk-industrial-electricity-still-uncompetitive-steel-industry-sets-out-plan-to-fix-it
- https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2025/marginal-gains-how-wind-is-pushing-gas-out-of-the-power-market-and-cutting-costs
- https://www.uksteel.org/electricity-prices
- british-businesses-to-save-over-400m-a-year-as-government-slashes-electricity-costs
- https://www.thetimes.com/business/energy/article/scheme-to-cut-manufacturers-energy-costs-will-come-too-late-xg7829z99?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc7-Ybk34CQ4hz0WV6beXvAa6YvXa7zfhzEMcRzgBDDwG1s6aTwVRWNUjbqSDk%3D&gaa_ts=696a39e7&gaa_sig=KcgbNgVoVl_lGnxMVgn9ACekqRiOhSmIvZu4khdmOSXMwez17z4bNUgxR1mKILovgqFQMT8Yc65elptgeOEKZw%3D%3D
For more information or for interview requests:
George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, t: 020 8156 5305, m: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net