EV targets: Reported Westminster plans to weaken electric car sales targets risks undermining Scottish climate commitments

The Scottish Government has committed to achieving net zero emissions throughout all sectors of its economy by 2045, [1] five years ahead of the UK’s legally binding net zero target. [2] However, a rumoured weakening of the UK’s ZEV Mandate, which UK Ministers are set to discuss on Wednesday, would see manufacturers facing lesser incentives to bring their best range of low-cost EVs to Scottish customers, hampering the pace of EV uptake in the country, and jeopardising its emissions trajectory.  

If the UK Government presses ahead with its rumoured plan to reduce the ZEV Mandate target from 80% to 60% of new car sales being fully electric by 2030 and to extend flexibilities beyond 2029, such that fewer EVs are sold and more petrol cars and hybrids are sold instead, emissions in Scotland could be 4.2 Mt higher by 2050. Of these extra emissions, 1.2 Mt could occur during Scotland’s 4th carbon budget (2041–2045), [3] amounting to 5% of the total permitted at the very time when emissions are expected to fall to net zero to help combat climate change. 

These rumoured changes would create a steeper trajectory to reach the final target of 100% EV sales by 2035, such that some parts of the industry could call for further changes in future, as they have done repeatedly to-date. The analysis considered a scenario in which the final target of 100% sales was pushed back to 2040, which would see plug-in hybrids being sold right up to the start of Scotland’s fourth and final carbon budget.  This could increase Scotland’s extra emissions by 2050 to 7.5 Mt, and could double the extra emissions during Scotland’s 4th carbon budget to 2.4 Mt, 10% more than the Government has budgeted for, just as the country is set to hit net zero emissions. 

Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, Head of Analysis at ECIU, said: 

“Not only did the Scottish Government draft elements of its net zero plan based on these rules, parts of the car-making industry and growing EV charging businesses did too. Policies like EV sales targets are supposed to be long-term and free from changes so businesses and governments alike can make plans and investment decisions. A weakening would likely mean Scottish drivers missing out on the same choice of low-cost EVs as drivers elsewhere in the world, while creating millions more tonnes of greenhouse gases that the Scottish government – and our climate – had not budgeted for.” 

Changes to most parts of the ZEV Mandate require agreement between the UK Government and the devolved administrations. Parts 1 to 4 of the consultation are conducted jointly by the UK Government, Scottish Government, Welsh Government and the Department for Infrastructure in Northern Ireland. [4] Only Part 5 is fully within the gift of the UK Government, namely options for defining the phase-out by 2030 of sales of new internal combustion engines cars.  There is also a ZEV Mandate for vans, and any further changes to that policy would add to Scotland’s emissions.