Food prices set to rise by 50% since start of cost-of-living crisis, new analysis shows

New analysis [1] released today by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) indicates that UK food prices are on track to be 50% higher by November 2026 compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021. This would suggest that the amount of price growth seen in the nearly 20 years prior to the crisis would be achieved in just over 5 years – almost quadrupling the pace of food inflation.

The findings highlight how a combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, global supply disruptions, and continued exposure to volatile oil and gas markets have compounded pressures on the food system, with households facing sustained increases at the checkout.

According to the analysis, staples including pasta (+50%), frozen vegetables (+55%), chocolate (+58%), eggs (+59%), beef (+64%) and olive oil (+113%) [2] have already seen some of the steepest rises, reflecting their sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, both in the UK and in key import regions.

Together, these forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, with energy shocks accounting for £244 of this [3]. More recently, five climate-impacted foods - butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee - have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation, with the price of these foods rising over four times faster than other food and drink [4].

Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect kicking off this year. Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years. Unless we get to net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will spiral ever further, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, so insulating our food system from the kind of price spikes we’ve been seeing since Russian invaded Ukraine.”
 
The projected 50% increase means that many households will continue to feel the strain well beyond the initial phase of the cost-of-living crisis, with food remaining one of the most visible and unavoidable expenses. Polling and focus groups, including recent work by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation [5], repeatedly show that living standards, the cost of living and economic security remain among the most politically salient issues for UK voters.

Adjusting for average wages, food prices have risen by 11% since the start of the cost-of-living crisis compounding the wage-adjusted rises seen in other largely unavoidable household costs such as energy (+36%), water (+25%), and insurance (+19%) among other things [1]. As households can’t easily cut these costs, they intensify the squeeze on disposable incomes, leaving food spending as one of the few areas where people can try to cut back. This helps to explain why food price rises are felt so acutely.

Lower-income households are expected to be disproportionately affected [6] by higher food prices, as they spend a larger share of their income on food and are less able to absorb price shocks. The Food Foundation (2025) estimates that in order to afford the government recommended healthy diet, the most deprived fifth of the population would need to spend 45% of their disposable income on food, rising to 70% for those households with children [7].

Anna Taylor, Executive Director of the Food foundation, said: “Food prices rising this high, and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises - taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it. This conflict is the latest shock in a series, and there will be more. The question for government isn't just how to respond to this crisis - it's whether we're finally going to build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next one. That's exactly what the Good Food Bill would do: lock in a long-term commitment to affordable, healthy food so that the next geopolitical shock doesn't land on the plates of the families who can least afford it.”

ENDS

Notes to editors:

• The analysis models cumulative food price increases using official inflation data and the forward projection from the Food and Drinks Federation that food inflation will hit 9-10% by the end of the year: https://www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-media/press-releases/2026/fdf-revises-food-inflation-forecast-to-at-least-9-by-the-end-of-2026/
• The “cost of living crisis” baseline is defined as July 2021, prior to the sharp rise in food inflation driven by energy markets and global disruptions.

1. The ECIU analysis is available to download here.
2. Percentage figures indicate the nominal increase in prices from July 2021 to March 2026.
3. ECIU, Families hit by £605 food bill as extreme weather and energy crisis bites (2023): https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2023/families-hit-by-605-food-bill-as-extreme-weather-and-energy-crisis-bites
4. ECIU, Why food prices are still rising: butter, beef and milk to blame (2025): https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/why-food-prices-are-still-rising-butter-beef-and-milk-to-blame  
5. Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Voters blame politicians for cost of living crisis (2025) https://www.jrf.org.uk/public-attitudes/voters-blame-politicians-for-cost-of-living-crisis
6. ECIU analysis indicates that food price inflation hits the bottom fifth of households 50% harder than the richest fifth, meaning food inflation widens inequalities. Link to analysis:  https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/food-inflation-from-iran-war-could-hit-poorer-households-50-harder-than-richest
7. Food Foundation, The Broken Plate (2025): https://foodfoundation.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-01/TFF_The%20Broken%20Plate%202005%20FINAL%20DIGITAL.pdf   
   
   For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, t: 020 8156 5305, m: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net