Heatwave highlights need for natural defences as UK nations diverge in their tree planting performance – new analysis

“Heat records being broken on a monthly basis really drives home how vulnerable the UK is to extreme weather – and climate change means these events will only become more frequent until net zero emissions is reached, the only way we can bring balance back to our climate. Trees planted now can provide vital shade to people and animals alike, cool our cities, restore ecosystems and help us reach net zero – but only if we plant them.

"The divergence between nations’ performance is striking. England and Scotland are roughly on track, but Wales and Northern Ireland have further to go. All will need a step change in ambition to ensure their targets are reached.”

The analysis found that England's interim tree planting target in the updated Environmental Improvement Plan is achievable with current planting rates. Wales faces challenges, with its current target – set in 2021 – proving very difficult to achieve based on historical planting rates, and its more recent Sustainable Farming Scheme target also difficult to achieve. Notably the CCC's more recent advice for Wales requires less planting than its own government target.

Northern Ireland, with the lowest woodland cover of any UK nation is significantly behind on both its own target and the CCC's recommendations. At current rates, it is projected to achieve just 48% of either target by 2030.

Beyond carbon removal, the analysis highlights the broader benefits at risk from delayed planting. Trees provide over £400 million per year in flood protection benefits [4] and reduce heat stress, alongside improvements to water quality, nature recovery, and public health through access to green spaces. With extreme weather events like heatwaves and flood increasing due to climate change, trees planted now will reach maturity in time to help reduce flood risk to homes and communities.

Research points to policy uncertainty and the economics of land-use change as key factors behind the planting gap. The CCC has noted that woodland creation has "high upfront costs and uncertain and/or long payback periods” [5]. Woodland creation is a permanent land use change, yet the policy and funding environment has historically been subject to more frequent revision than woodland and forestry timescales demand.