Latest renewables auction to cut US gas imports by half in 2030

With the AR7a renewables auctions securing 1.3GW of onshore wind and 4.9GW of solar [1], in addition to 8.4GW of offshore wind announced last month in AR7, these clean power projects are set to cut the UK’s gas demand and therefore limit gas imports by over 80 TWh per year, which is more than three times as much as the extra 25 TWh that might be produced in 2030 if new drilling licences are issued.  [2]
 
Gas imports are set to account for about three quarters of gas demand in 2030, up from around half at present, as North Sea production continues its decline. [3] These imports could be dominated by US LNG shipments, which currently account for around 70% of the LNG entering the UK [4], as President Trump pushes to increase fossil fuel exports.  The amount of US LNG used in the UK in 2030 compared to now could double under a central scenario in which gas demand falls moderately, but it could quadruple without the projects secured under AR7 cutting gas demand.  That is, these new renewables could cut by half the amount of US gas used in the UK in 2030. [5]
 
And under a scenario of slower reductions in gas demand, including without AR7 renewables, and even if there was new North Sea gas production, use of US LNG would be almost five times as large as in 2030 than currently, whereas a more rapid move away from gas, including using this new batch of renewables, would see the UK’s use of US gas rise by only about half (50%) by 2030.
 
Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said: “It is absolutely clear that gas production in the North Sea has been in decline for years and even with new drilling licences this decline will inevitably continue. This leaves the UK with a big dilemma, either shift to net zero technologies like wind, solar and heat pumps that replace gas boilers, or become ever more dependent on the US and Trump, and the actions of actors like Putin who everyone knows has sent gas prices rocketing.
 
“Once solar panels and wind turbines are installed, we aren’t dependent any country for the sun or wind to power them, and so these latest auction results point to an ever more energy independent UK. New onshore wind and solar are the cheapest forms of electricity generation in the UK, and so today’s news means lower bills for homes and businesses, displacing more expensive gas power stations.”
 
Wind and solar projects secured in the AR7 auction will provide around 10% of the UK’s generation expected in 2030, when the final projects will be coming online.
 
Large wind farms cut the day-ahead wholesale electricity price by a third in 2025, by pushing gas power plants off the system and reducing their ability to set higher prices. [6] Smaller wind farms and solar projects connected to distribution grids have a similar effect by reducing the amount of gas generation that is needed.

ENDS

Notes to editors: 

1. DESNZ: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/contracts-for-difference-cfd-allocation-round-7-results

2. The analysis used the capacities secured in AR7 for offshore wind, floating offshore wind, onshore wind and solar, along with their load factors, to estimate annual generation output (just over 40TWh/yr), which 10% or more of the total GB generation for 2030 across the range of scenarios in the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2025 (NESO, Nov-2025).  Generation output from AR7 projects was converted into gas demand using typical gas power plant efficiency of 50% (giving a little over 80TWh/yr of gas), which was compared to difference in gas production values for 2030 from Production Projections (NSTA, Nov-2025) with existing fields (140TWh/yr) and with new licences (up to 165TWh/yr), i.e. the effect of AR7 (over 80TWh/yr)  is more than three times the size of new licences (25TWh/yr). 

3. Gas import dependence in 2030 was estimated using: gas production values for 2030 from Production Projections (NSTA, Nov-2025) with and without new licences; and UK gas demand from the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2025 (NESO, Nov-2025) under three scenarios: Holistic Transition (low, 535TWh/yr), Hydrogen Evolution (mid, 572TWh/yr), and Falling Behind (high 652TWh/yr).  Each scenario contains enough extra renewables to account for the projects secured in AR7, such that the effects of those projects not being in place were modelled by adding the c.80TWh/yr of gas demand to each demand scenario.  Different combinations of demand and production were explored, and relevant pairings give an import dependence of c.75% – or c.90% if AR7 projects are removed and commensurate gas demand is added. 

4. Gas import data from Energy Trends 4.3 (DESNZ, Jan-2026) shows that the US accounts for a rising proportion (and rising volume) of LNG imports into the UK, reaching c.70% in 2024 and in 2025 up to October.  Data suggests that around half of the LNG imported to the UK is immediately exported to the Continent, and it was assumed (in the absence of data about private trades) that the c.70% share applies to LNG used in the UK. 

5. The analysis of LNG imports used monthly data from Energy Trends 4.2, 4.3 & 4.4 (DESNZ, Jan-2026) for gas production, imports, exports, etc, from January 2000 to October 2025, in order to understand historical and emerging patterns.  This suggests that, of the pipeline imports from Norway (averaging 330TWh/yr in recent years), at least 90% are used in the UK, with the remainder being exported; and that, of the almost 80TWh/yr of LNG currently imported from the US, a little over half is for UK consumption and the rest is for transits to the Continent.  For future years, it was assumed that pipeline imports from Norway remain at their recent levels and that imports from the Continent remain at their current level of essentially zero (given that there is little scope for either of these to increase flows to the UK as European countries continue to replace Russian gas), such that LNG imports would increase to meet demand (e.g. reaching c.130TWh/yr in 2030 if gas demand falls moderately).  Assuming that the current split of c.70% LNG imports coming from the US applies in 2030, gives an estimate of US LNG imports used in the UK (e.g. c.90TWh/if demand falls moderately). 

6. Wind farms cut power prices by almost a third in 2025 (ECIU, Jan 2026)

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net