Trump North Sea claims frame leaders debate: comment

"The Scottish public clearly do not agree with the President’s arguments as recent polling shows that two-thirds of Scots believe we shouldn’t be following his advice, with the majority saying the UK is best placed further increasing investment in renewables rather than more North Sea extraction [2].

"They see the route to energy security being to double down on homegrown renewables which present a future opportunity for prosperity in places like Aberdeen as North Sea output continues the decline which has been going on for many years, even under a policy to maximise production."

BACKGROUND ON NORTH SEA OIL AND GAS 

The North Sea Transition Authority projects that, without further exploration, UK production of oil and gas will fall from 689 TWh in 2025 to 62 TWh in 2050 [a 91% drop]. If production from possible new oil and gas fields is included, domestic production is projected to be 103 TWh in 2050 [an 85% drop].” (source, CCC section 10.2.2)

Recent ECIU analysis found that “93% of the oil and gas that is likely to be produced from the North Sea has already been extracted”, according to projections by the North Sea Transition Authority. Even the most optimistic projections by oil and gas industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) show that 86% of the available oil and gas has already been extracted.

Academics from the UK Energy Research Centre stated recently, “calls for more licensing are simplistic. The pace of oil and gas extraction is not set by the availability of new licenses, as much of the North Sea is already licensed, including areas with the most significant oil and gas reserves … Abundant evidence shows the UK North Sea is a declining basin … Sanctioning new projects will not reverse this trend given the smaller size of remaining fields, locking in low levels of oil and gas production for years ahead.”

Recent analysis by campaign group Uplift found that the Jackdaw field, one of the largest unexploited gasfields in the North Sea, would displace only 2% of the UK’s current gas imports, while the Rosebank field – also in Scottish waters but mainly containing oil – would displace only about 1% of the UK’s gas imports.

Net imports accounted for roughly half of total UK gas supply in 2025, provisional government data show (DESNZ). Gas imported from Norway accounted for roughly 70% of total imports. This gas is produced in the Norwegian Continental Shelf, which is far less depleted that the UK Continental Shelf. Norwegian Petroleum estimates that "only 57% of the expected recoverable resources on the [Norwegian continental] shelf have been produced".

A recent Oxford University study found that “maximising oil & gas extraction from the North Sea would save households a modest £16 - £82 per year - and only if the tax revenues collected were distributed to households to offset their energy bills … If the Government did not choose to do this, there be no discernible benefit to UK households at all, because oil and gas prices are set on and influenced by international markets”. In comparison, “a UK powered fully by renewable energy could save all households up to £441 a year on their energy bills”.

While it is true that oil and gas will be part of the UK's energy mix for decades to come, it is important to note that demand is projected to fall steeply. The Climate Change Committee projects that “primary demand for oil and gas falls from 1,476 TWh to 286 TWh [an 81% drop] in the Balanced Pathway” to net zero by 2050.