UK arable farmers lose billions after three years of ‘devastating’ harvests

Three poor harvests in a row after unprecedented extreme weather are set to cost farmers billions of pounds in lost revenue, according to new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) [1]. Compared to the 2014-2023 ten-year average, the shortfall in production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape in 2024, 2025 and the estimated shortfall in 2026 is 14.4m tonnes. This is estimated to have cost farmers £4.8 billion in lost revenue when these years and the historical average are both adjusted for inflation.  

This summer’s extreme heat and drought are projected to have led to the worst harvest on record [2], after wheat and spring barley yields were hit by the lack of moisture and high temperatures. The Met Office project that 2026 will be the hottest summer on record [3], talking the place of 2025 [4], which together with drought similarly affected the yields of last year’s harvest. The harvest in 2024 was hit by the winter washout of that year [5], as a wet autumn in 2023 and winter and spring in 2024 hit both crop areas and yields [6]. Several scientific studies have attributed the severity of these extreme weather events to climate change [7]. 

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said, “Just as Britain’s arable farmers thought 2026 might bring a better harvest, this summer’s extreme heat and relentless drought has been a terrible blow that has left farmers facing the third poor harvest in a row. Our farmers are now on the front line of climate change, which is taking a relentless toll on their ability to grow and harvest the crops we all depend upon.  

“The lost revenue this summer is just a snapshot of the total cost for UK farming, with vegetable growers, livestock farmers and many in the wider food supply chain also being hit by these climate costs. Better soil health and trees to shade livestock help cut emissions, and also make farming more resilient. But there are also limits to what can be done, for example irrigating many crops just doesn’t stack up financially, so reaching net zero emissions is also imperative otherwise temperatures will simply continue to spiral upwards while our food security falls.” 

The figures, first reported on the BBC’s Countryfile [8], highlight the cumulative impact of these harvest losses and the extent to which this is now hitting the capacity of many farmers to drill crops for next year. The National Farmers Union recently warned that the impact of extreme weather on many farmers’ cashflow could jeopardise next year’s harvest [9].  

Martin Lines, CEO of the Nature Friendly Farming Network and a farmer from Cambridgeshire said, "As a farmer, I’m used to ironing out the bad years with the good, but three terrible harvests in a row is just devastating for my business and the farming sector as a whole. Anyone who thinks that climate change isn’t something to worry about needs to spend a day in a farmer’s boots, struggling to grow crops, feed livestock with no grass or keep animals cool in a heatwave.  

“With El Niño loaded on top of climate change threatening to bring a wet and stormy autumn and even hotter summer next year, our industry desperately needs politicians and the supply chain to take the threat of climate change to our food security much more seriously. We need support to reduce emissions and boost the resilience of UK food production and can’t afford that alone whilst climate change is hitting our bottom line so relentlessly.” 

Against the 2013-2024 average, the total deficit for each year in tonnes was 4.3m in 2024, 4.2m in 2025 and is projected by ECIU to be 5.9m in 2026, based on the yield estimates published in the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Boards second harvest report on 14th August [10]. The cumulative deficit across the three years is over 14m tonnes of cereals and oilseeds. These AHDB yield estimates were updated on the 28th August, with some yield estimates improving slightly, but the broad picture remains unchanged, with 2026 still set for the worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984. 

ENDS

Notes to editors:

1. The analysis is available to download here. 

2. UK harvest even worse than previously thought – new data: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/uk-harvest-even-worse-than-previously-thought-new-data

3. Warmest UK summer on record “increasingly likely” as temperatures stay well above average: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/warmest-uk-summer-on-record-increasingly-likely-as-temperatures-stay-well-above-average   

4. Summer 2025 is the warmest on record for the UK: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/summer-2025-is-the-warmest-on-record-for-the-uk \ 

5. State of the UK Climate Report 2024: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.70010  

6. UK harvest hits near record lows following Government food security warnings: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2024/uk-harvest-hits-near-record-lows-following-government-food-security-warnings  

7. For example, World Weather Attribution found that the winter rainfall in 2023/24 was made significantly worse by climate change: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/autumn-and-winter-storms-over-uk-and-ireland-are-becoming-wetter-due-to-climate-change/. And that the 2026 June heatwave would have been impossible 50 years ago: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-rapidly-worsened-european-heatwaves-in-just-a-few-decades/  

8. Broadcast on Sunday 30th August 

9. Farmers at crisis point: Action needed to ensure food is grown next year: https://www.nfuonline.com/news/nfu-convenes-farming-roundtable-as-farmers-reach-crisis-point/  

10. AHDB have subsequently published a third harvest report on 28th August, but these figures were not available when this analysis was produced. The difference between the second and third harvest reports is only marginal and does not impact the headline findings of this analysis: https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/gb-harvest-progress  

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 020 8156 5305, M: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net