UK harvest on track for historic lows after drought and heatwaves desiccate crops – new analysis

Provisional yield estimates produced by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) [2] suggest wheat, spring barley and oat yields will all be down, with the estimated wheat yield well below the ten-year average at only 6.8 tonnes per hectare. With 54% of the wheat crop harvested, if these average yields hold the UK cereal and oilseeds harvest would be 19.5million tonnes, surpassing 2020 as the worst harvest on record since detailed records began in 1984. This is even after good yields forecast for oilseed rape.  

Even if yields are revised up, 2026 is now likely to be one of the five worst harvests since 1984, which would mean that four out of five of the worst harvests on record had occurred this decade after periods of extreme weather made worse by climate change.  

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said, “At the start of spring farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row. Farming is now the sector most exposed to climate change and the risks and damage that it brings.  

“From the wettest winter on record in 2024, to the hottest summer in 2025 and now unprecedented heat and drought this year, we are in danger of UK farming entering a climate doom loop, as repeated impacts undermine the capacity of farmers to drill next year’s crop. Without reducing emissions to net zero, to bring the climate back into balance, conditions will continue to deteriorate. It is now a clear priority for the future of UK food production, farming and the countryside that sustains it. Our green and pleasant land is transforming into a parched and increasingly unproductive one.” 

Earlier forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service in April [3] and the European cereals association COCERAL in March [4] suggested that UK yields were on course to be at or above the ten-year average. However, despite one of the wettest winters on record [5], a dry April [6] impacted cereal crops at a crucial time, whilst successive heatwaves in May, June and July hammered cereal crops, depriving grains of the moisture they need to fill out and add yield. A near total absence of rainfall since mid-June in some key growing regions such as the East of England compounded the impact of the extreme heat, with southern England seeing the driest month ever recorded [7], in records dating back to 1836.  

Martin Lines, CEO of the Nature Friendly Farming Network and a farmer from Cambridgeshire said, "Harvest this year has been a real kick in the teeth. After two terrible harvests in a row, the crops this year were looking good and full of potential coming out of spring, only for months of drought and heatwaves to destroy any prospect of a decent harvest. 

"I've never known it this dry and hot on our farm. Even farmers I know who were sceptical of climate change are now saying they're really worried about the future of their businesses and production, it's just been completely brutal for our industry. And with high input costs because of the Iran war, planning crops for next year is a total nightmare. The nature-friendly practices we've deployed on the farm have helped our soils hold on to water for longer, but there's only so much you can do to adapt to these sorts of extremes."

If the yields forecast by the USDA and COCERAL had come to pass, production based on AHDB crop area estimates would have been 21.4 million tonnes and 22 million tonnes. The post-heatwave yield estimates produced by the AHDB suggest overall production could be down as much as 2.5million tonnes compared to these earlier forecasts. At current prices, this could lead to a loss of revenue for UK farmers between £293m and £390m.  

This would be in addition to earlier ECIU analysis that suggested post-heatwave losses across Europe could cost farmers as much as €2billion in lost revenue [8]. With other sectors such as horticulture, dairy and potatoes also hit by the current drought and heatwaves, the losses for UK agriculture are likely to be much higher still. 

A recent study by World Weather Attribution found that the June heatwave would have been impossible 50 years ago, and that climate change is ‘unequivocally to blame’ [9].