Estimated decline in headline self- sufficiency for UK food production due to the projected reduction in arable crop output in 2024

This winter has been unprecedentedly wet, coming at the end of the wettest 18 months in the UK since records began in 1836. This has had a significant impact on farmers’ cropping plans, with wet weather preventing the drilling of crops in autumn and spring.

Previous ECIU analysis estimated that the total output for wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape would decline by up to a fifth, compared to 2023, or around 4m tonnes.

This new analysis estimates what this reduction in output could mean for headline self-sufficiency.

We estimate that, compared to the five year average between 2018 and 2022 – the last year for which comprehensive data exists across all farming sectors – this decline in output could reduce headline self-sufficiency across all UK farming sectors from 86% to 78%, when measured by volume. For wheat, the decline is greatest, from 92% to 68% this year. The ratio is relatively stable for barley and oats due to anticipated higher rates of spring planting, but we estimate a steep decline for oilseed rape down to historically low levels, from 75% self-sufficient, to 40% this year.

This steep decline in a single year is not expected to persist, assuming conditions are more benign next year. But it is indicative of the impact that climate change may have on UK food production and self-sufficiency, due to the increased likelihood of the extreme weather we have seen this winter.