Climate extremes in the UK are driving up lamb prices for consumers

Climate change is hitting households this Easter, with lamb prices up as a direct result of extreme weather hitting UK farming. New analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) finds that successive climate shocks since 2022 have pushed lamb prices up by between 7% to 21% each time.

Key points

• The UK has experienced consecutive seasonal climate extremes since 2022 – a summer drought, a prolonged wet winter, and another drought – with little recovery between them. Each of these events has placed upwards pressure on farming costs and food prices.
• Our analysis estimates that the farmgate prices of a traditional red meat, lamb, rose by between 11% and 25% after each of these periods of extreme weather.
• For households that regularly buy lamb, the cost of these climate events has been substantial, adding up to GBP 168 to grocery bills for lamb purchased over the period.
• The impact is especially visible at Easter, when lamb takes centre stage. Our estimates suggest that a 2 kg leg of lamb – a traditional Easter roast – has carried a climate premium at every Easter since 2023. Consumers have paid 7-21% more for their Easter lamb joint roasts than they would have without these climate events.
• These findings show that the cost of seasonal climate extremes is reaching household budgets through the food system, even in a temperate, high-income country with a well-developed agricultural sector. As climate extremes become more frequent, these impacts are likely to rise.