Impact of the 2026 summer drought and heatwaves on the European potato harvest
New analysis using industry forecasts suggests lost production could cost farmers over €800 million as Europe faces one of its smallest potato harvests on record.
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The impact of the exceptionally hot and dry weather in summer 2026 is expected to knock 3.1 million tonnes off the NEPG potato harvest, with yield reductions against the five-year average of between 7% and 21% across these four countries. At prices agreed before the drought, this lost production is valued at between €405m and €622m, with a central estimate of €498m.
When the expected impact of the drought and heatwaves on the potato harvest in Great Britain are added, this increases to over 3.5 million tonnes, increasing the value of the total lost production to between €498m and €818m across Great Britain and the NEPG countries. For the Great Britain alone, these losses are estimate at between £80m and £169m.
2025 produced a record 27.3 million-tonne harvest, which collapsed prices due to oversupply. Growers responded the way a market should and planted less - 11% less in Germany, 10% in France, 15% in the Netherlands and 17% in Belgium. That took a further 3.6 million tonnes out of the crop based on yields at the five-year average. Losses reported above associated with the drought and summer heat therefore come on top of this market related contraction in supply.
The trade now expects 19.5 to 20.5 million tonnes, and World Potato Markets says the EU-wide crop could be the smallest on record.
Germany carries the largest loss at 1.13 million tonnes, followed by France (0.99 million, with the lowest yields in more than thirty years), Belgium (0.79 million, half of the main frying variety below the size processors want) and the Netherlands (0.21 million). Great Britain, counted separately, loses a further 0.44 million tonnes and is heading for its smallest potato harvest on record.