Comment on SMMT new car registrations

“With EVs accounting for more than a quarter of new car sales in February, we have further evidence that the ZEV mandate, introduced by the previous Government, is working and that the car industry is more than capable of hitting its sales targets for 2025. Far from being below the Government’s sales targets, as the SMMT claims, at 23% for the year so far the car industry as a whole is already exceeding the 22.9% it needs to hit to comply with the ZEV mandate, once the various flexibilities built into the regulation are taken in to account. [2]

“As manufacturers compete to hit their targets, prices are driven down and sales are driven up, enabling more people to enjoy cheaper and cleaner electric driving. This dynamic would be lost were the mandate to be weakened. Prices would go up, and sales would go down. This in turn would stunt the growth of the second hand EV market, leaving millions of families stuck in petrol cars paying a premium of £1600 a month, and costing a total of £40bn in additional driving costs.”

Analysis by the ECIU found that by 2048 a weakening of the ZEV mandate could result in sales similar to the ‘lower option’ considered by the previous Government when designing the policy, resulting in 2.7m fewer EVs entering the second hand market than would otherwise have been the case by 2048. This means that a total of around £40bn in extra motoring costs would have to be shouldered by millions of families across the UK, including some of the poorest. [3]

A recent report by CBI Economics, commissioned by the ECIU, revealed that a failure by the car industry to make the transition to manufacturing EVs could see its contributions to the UK economy fall by as much as 73%, or £34.1bn, and over 400,000 jobs could be lost. Conversely, economic output could increase by over £16bn, and 167,000 new jobs could be created, if a rapid and successful transition takes place. Government support is critical in avoiding such an outcome, and this includes the provision of a stable and supportive regulatory environment through keeping measures like the ZEV Mandate in place. [4]