El Nino: heat stress risk to British food (rice, coffee and chocolate) grown by foreign farmers – analysis

“The UK government’s national security advisors, along with the Climate Change Committee, and some the world’s leading food security experts, are warning with increasing urgency that we risk sleepwalking into a food crisis. The threat from climate change is growing, hitting the food crops themselves, but also the workers we rely on to produce them. In countries like India where the mercury is currently hitting the high forties degrees Celsius, it’s simply dangerous to be outside working which puts health, livelihoods, and steady supplies of food in jeopardy.
 
“With a powerful El Niño about to land on top of climate change, unless farmers here in the UK, and in the countries that grow our food are supported to shift towards more resilient, sustainable forms of agriculture, everyone’s food security is at risk. But unless we halt climate change, with reaching net zero emissions being the only way to do that, heat in the fields will continue to spiral and no form of adaptation will make that bearable for farmers threatening them and the food they grow for us.”
 
Climate change impacts on their own have already hit harvests around the world. The UK imports two fifths of the food we consume from overseas, and in two years (2022, and 2023), climate impacts added around £360 to the average UK household food bill. [5] Those impacts hit farmers in the UK as well as overseas, with three of the worst harvests on record in the past five years. [6]
 
As a result, UK households have seen food prices rise more than 40% since mid-2021, outpacing wages which have grown less than 30% on average. [7] The UK’s national security advisers [8], Climate Change Committee [9], and a growing number of food experts [10] have all warned the government recently that the country is facing an increasing risk of food shortages, driven in part by climate change impacts as well as disruption from the war in the Middle East. The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFOA) – representing the people who determine risk for the financial sector – said in April that the world’s food system is fracturing as a result of worsening climate change impacts and the loss of biodiversity. [11]
 
Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said: “Foods we import to the UK that are hit by climate change are disproportionately driving food price inflation, and we know that many of those higher prices are unlikely to fall fast or soon. Short term shocks like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz add new layers of threat to our food imports, and to food security in producer nations, given the shift towards more sustainable farming is ongoing and reliance on gas-based synthetic fertilisers is still very high.”  
 
The biggest supplier of food to the UK, outside of North American and European nations, was Brazil, which hosted the most recent UN climate summit – COP30. Last year, we imported 1.4 billion kg (3.5% of overall volume of food imports) worth £1.3bn. They are our biggest supplier of coffee, but we also rely heavily on them for imports of soya beans, which are used for animal feed, as well as for imports of sugar and a range of fruits [15].
 
In 2019, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) calculated that, by 2030, heat stress would cut working hours globally by 2.2%, costing $2.4 trillion in GDP. In 2024, they estimated that 71% of the global workforce is exposed to excessive heat – rising to nearly 75% in Asia, over 83% in the Arab states, and just under 93% in Africa. [12]
 
All 15 of the top importing developing countries score below 50 on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Climate Vulnerability Index [13]. This means they face significant climate risks while having more limited capacity to adapt. As temperatures rise, heat stress is putting pressure on the agricultural workforces in those countries as farmers, everywhere, are among some of the people most vulnerable to climate extremes.
 
Shamika Mone, a rice farmer in India, and President of the Intercontinental Network of Organic Farmers said: “Extreme heat makes the already difficult job of farming even harder. There are real fears that hotter, drier weather caused by a super El Niño could damage harvests.
 
"To safeguard our food system, governments need to cut greenhouse gas emissions – including from fertiliser production – and get more climate finance direct to smallholders and their organisations so they can adapt. Adopting nature-friendly farming approaches – including planting a greater diversity of crops and shade trees – can help to bring down the temperature on farms and protect farmers and harvests."
 
Alongside cutting planet-heating emissions to net zero to halt worsening impacts, climate finance from wealthy nations to those with low climate readiness is a key part of the solution, supporting farmers to adapt to climate impacts, both to secure crops and protect livelihoods. In turn, this supports British retailers in keeping supplies and prices stable for UK consumers.
 
Further withdrawal from overseas aid and climate finance would leave some of the world’s most vulnerable farmers even further exposed to climate change, with the potential to undermine global food production, and our own food security.
 
Top 15 countries and major food exports to UK

1. Brazil. Coffee (our biggest supplier), soya beans (used for animal feed), sugar, and fruits – guavas, mangos and mangosteens, melons, and grapes.
2. South Africa. Grapes (our largest supplier), apples, mandarins and tangerines, cranberries and blueberries, oranges, lemons, clementines, avocados, nectarines, sugar, plums, pears, and wines.  
3. India. Rice (our biggest supplier), tea, grapes, lentils, sweetcorn, pepper, guavas, and coffee.
4. Vietnam. Coffee (our second biggest supplier), cashews, various fish, pepper, and assorted other nuts, and rice.
5. Côte d’Ivoire. Cocoa beans (by far the UK’s biggest supplier) and related cocoa products, bananas, guavas and mangos, and cashews.
6. Peru. Cranberries and blueberries, avocados, grapes, coffee, asparagus, guavas and mangos, mandarins and tangerines, peas, and quinoa.
7. Colombia. Bananas (our largest supplier), coffee, and avocados.  
8. Kenya. Tea (our biggest supplier), coffee, some beans, cauliflower, sweetcorn and peas.
9. Egypt. Grapes, strawberries, sweet potatoes, onions, various beans, oranges, and peas.
10. Ecuador. Bananas, cocoa beans, and a variety of fish and seafood.
11. Argentina. Groundnuts (or peanuts), maize, wine, and some fruits – cherries, cranberries and blueberries, and apples.
12. Ghana. Cocoa beans, bananas, guavas, mangos and mangosteens, yams, pineapples, and various forms of fish.
13. Indonesia. Coffee, palm oil, desiccated coconuts, and skipjack tuna.
14. Papua New Guinea. Palm oil (commonly used in food processing), coffee, and skipjack tuna.
15. Mexico. Tequila is the largest single import, but we also buy coffee, fresh berries - including blackberries, mulberries and loganberries – nuts and seeds, honey, sesame oil, and asparagus.