European drought and heat hits grain farmers harder than feared – costs up to €3.2 billion

• At current prices, this net loss of grain would be worth €3.2 billion
• France was the worst hit country losing 5.8m tonnes (€1.47bn), followed by Hungary (3.1m tonnes/€723m), the UK (3m tonnes/€527m), Germany (2.5m tonnes/€398m) and Spain (1.2m tonnes/€220m)

New analysis [1] from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates that the record-breaking European heat and drought is likely to cost European farmers around €3.2 billion. The analysis is based on the latest September forecast from COCERAL [2], the industry body representing the cereals, oilseeds, rice and olive oil sectors, and compares this to their June forecast.

Compared to that June forecast [3], European production of grains such as wheat, maize and barley is estimated to be down by 16.7 million tonnes after extreme heat affected kernel filling for wheat and maize pollination and reduced the maize area. This increases the losses from COCERAL’s ‘extraordinary’ July forecast [4] by a further 8 million tonnes. Previous ECIU analysis [5] estimated that this would have cost €1.8 billion. The increase to €3.2 billion illustrates the relentless heat and drought that continued to hit western, southern and central Europe throughout July and August. 

Tom Lancaster, farming analyst at ECIU said, “This summer’s extreme heat and drought has been unprecedented, costing Europe production equivalent to the entire grain output of Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands combined. At a time of geopolitical uncertainty, climate change is reducing our continents productive capacity and food security when we can least afford it.

“With Europe warming at twice the global average [6], climate losses like this are just a sign of things to come if we don’t move faster to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero to bring our climate back into balance. To safeguard our food security in the short term however, governments and business will have to invest in soil health and other regenerative farming measures to boost the resilience of Europe’s farms in the face of these climate impacts.”  

This summer marked the hottest summer on record for western Europe as well as large swathes of southern and central Europe [7]. In the UK, July was the driest on record in England and Wales, adding to extreme heat in May and June that reduced the harvest by 3 million tonnes, costing farmers there €527m or £452m. 

France was the worst affected country, with a net loss of 5.8 million tonnes, valued at €1.47 billion, with Hungary, Germany and Spain also losing significant volumes of production. Excluding upward revisions in forecast production in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Sweden, losses increase from €3.2 billion to €4.1 billion, which more accurately reflects the losses experienced by farmers across Western and Central Europe. 

French cereal farmer Sébastien Neveux, who farms 300 hectares in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region said, “This year, on my farm, all my crops have been affected. Winter crops have been the least affected, despite yield losses of 25 per cent. But for spring and summer crops, it’s quite simply a disaster. Sunflowers, for example, yielded 0.7 tonnes per hectare instead of the usual 1.5 to 2, which is a 60 per cent loss.

“With heatwaves starting as early as May, I can no longer find a solution. Especially as these climate impacts are compounding the geopolitical crises that are driving our costs through the roof. And on top of these recurring crises, market prices are far too low to cover our production costs.”

European diesel and fertiliser prices [8] spiked after the Iran war and remain elevated, as the volatile price of fossil fuels significantly increased farmers’ costs. Scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA) have found that the June heatwave would have been ‘virtually impossible’ fifty years ago without climate change [9]. 

The impact of this summer has been felt well beyond the grain harvest, with the European Commission Joint Research Centre [10] recently estimating that yields for soybeans are down 15%, potatoes 7% and sugar beet 11%, with reductions in grass growth also hitting livestock farms. They concluded that the impact on total production is expected to be even greater than these yield losses would suggest, with some of the hardest-hit crops so severely damaged that harvesting is no longer economically viable and fields have been abandoned.