Food inflation forecast to reach over 9%: comment
FDF revised forecasts show food inflation is expected to reacher over 9% by end of year: comment

By Christian Jaccarini
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Commenting on revised forecasts from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) that food inflation is now expected to reach over 9% by the end of the year [1] Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said:
"Forecasts that food inflation will approach double digits is deeply concerning. The war in the Middle East underlines just how quickly our dependence on fossil fuels can cost us. Petrol prices have risen sharply, and businesses are already reporting higher costs for energy, transport, fertiliser and other inputs. While oil and gas companies’ profits will likely rise, families will foot the bill through higher shopping and energy bills.
“When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a fossil fuel crisis, it helped drive a sharp rise in food prices. Across 2022 and 2023, households ended up paying around £600 more for food [2], with climate impacts on food production also adding to those costs. With wages still not having caught up, food remains less affordable for many families than it was before
“With scientists warning that El Niño could return sooner than expected [3] and intensify the extreme heat that climate change is already driving around the world, food production is in jeopardy. 2026 is shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks become a costly reality."
Notes to editors:
1. FDF: https://www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-media/press-releases/2026/fdf-revises-food-inflation-forecast-to-at-least-9-by-the-end-of-2026/
2. ECIU: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2023/families-hit-by-605-food-bill-as-extreme-weather-and-energy-crisis-bites
3. BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c203rdxkezwo
For more information or for interview requests:
George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, t: 020 8156 5305, m: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net