Government risks missing critical window for tree planting: analysis

Over 70% of carbon removal from new trees up to 2050 will come from trees planted within the next five years, new analysis shows [1]. The UK is currently on track to miss its tree planting targets, creating a potential shortfall in carbon removal and posing the real risk that the UK will miss the critical window for woodland creation to contribute towards climate and nature targets.

Timely planting will also impact trees’ ability to slow the flow of extreme rainfall, with mature trees better at flood risk mitigation. With more extreme downpours worsening in the UK due to climate change, unless more trees are planted during this parliament, they won’t reach maturity in time to help reduce the risk of flooded homes, with a projected 1.7m more homes in England at risk of flooding in 2050 due to climate change.

The analysis comes shortly after world leaders met in the Brazilian rainforest for COP30, where the UK made woodland creation a key part of its programme.

Tom Cantillon, senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “Trees sucking carbon out of the atmosphere are critical to the UK reaching net zero – the only way the world can stop climate change and bring our climate back into balance. After years of delay and missed targets, trees need to be planted now if they are to grow to maturity in time to absorb carbon emissions to help hit targets and also to slow the flow of the extreme rainfall that is getting worse in the UK because of climate change. Homes will be at a greater risk of flooding if we don’t increase planting rates now.

“The public are all for restoring British nature and more trees. Government now need to step up, delivering the kind of woodland creation we’ve seen in the past but haven’t for a few decades.“

The government’s recently published carbon budget and growth delivery plan suggested a reduction in ambition across land use and agriculture emissions reduction measures [2], with lower rates of woodland creation than the previous plan and their own targets. 

Trees planted between 2026-2030 will contribute over 70% of total carbon removal from new woodland to 2050, making this Parliament particularly significant for the UK’s net zero target. However, at current rates, the UK [3] is projected to miss planting an area three times the size of Greater London by mid-century – creating a carbon removal gap in 2050 equivalent to all residual industrial emissions.

The analysis highlights why immediate action matters. Higher planting rates in the future cannot compensate for missed planting now due to the time lag before trees mature enough to deliver maximum benefits for carbon removal, biodiversity and flood risk prevention. Planting from 2038 onwards actually contributes negatively to total carbon removal by 2050 due to soil disturbance during establishment, though it remains important for its co-benefits, and carbon removal post-2050.

Kathryn Brown, director of climate change and evidence at The Wildlife Trusts, said: “As Wildlife Trusts across the UK are busy proving, natural solutions to tackling climate change can provide a wealth of benefits for people and wildlife alike. Tree planting, as just one example, can help slow the flow of water during peak rainfall, improve water quality, and provide shade for parks and streets during heatwaves too. These nature-based solutions also provide much-needed habitats for wildlife, helping to give species like dormice, butterflies and lesser spotted woodpeckers a home.

“What’s clear from this report is that with climate change and wildlife declines continuing at a frightening pace, we must urgently invest in natural solutions in order to reap these benefits. This Government must remove barriers and speed up the process of approvals for tree planting if we are to tackle climate challenges head on, boost beleaguered wildlife, and safeguard homes, businesses and livelihoods in the process.”

Beyond carbon, the analysis identifies the broader benefits of new woods and trees, providing over £400 million per year in flood protection benefits [4], alongside improvements to water quality, nature recovery, and public health through access to green spaces. A recent Wildlife Trusts study emphasises the need for timely planting for co-benefits realisation, with every £1 invested in Natural Flood Management generating £4.47 in returns over ten years but rising to £10.79 over 30 years [5].

The shortfall would result in a third less carbon being sequestered in 2050 than required under the Committee on Climate Change's (CCC’s) Balanced Pathway in their Carbon Budget 7 advice. Meeting net zero under this shortfall scenario would require either additional emissions reductions, or greater deployment of engineered carbon removal technologies such as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS).

ENDS

Notes to editors

1. The analysis is available to download here.
2. https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-the-uk-governments-carbon-budget-delivery-plan-for-2035/
3. Forestry is devolved, meaning delivery depends on action across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The CCC's Balanced Pathway anticipates significant regional shifts in planting allocation from 2030 onwards.
4. https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/publications/revised-valuation-of-flood-regulation-services-of-existing-forest-cover/
5. https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/sites/default/files/2025-10/2025_FEB_NaturalFloodManagement_Full_Report_DIGITAL_SPREAD%201.pdf

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net