New Welsh government faces tree planting battle as country way off target despite voter backing – analysis/polling

Trees can shade livestock during heatwaves and two-thirds of Welsh voters back significantly more tree planting, yet Wales is on track to deliver just 14% of its 2030 woodland target.

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By Tom Cantillon

info@eciu.net

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New analysis finds that Wales is projected to achieve just 14% of its national tree planting target [1]. The shortfall comes despite strong public backing: new polling from More in Common for ECIU shows two-thirds (66%) of Welsh adults support significantly increasing tree planting in Wales even if this would require converting some farmland into new woodland [2]. This could include ‘agroecological’ approaches such as integrating trees into working farms or focusing planting on less productive marginal land.

Plaid Cymru's manifesto reflects this approach, committing to expanding tree cover through native woodland creation, agroforestry on farms, and extending tree planting targets to public land. The manifesto does not set a specific hectare target. However ECIU analysis finds that current trends would leave Wales delivering only a small fraction of the woodland creation needed by 2030.

Trees on farms can help shade livestock to help protect them during the kind of heatwave Wales has just witnessed where May temperature records were broken. Trees can also play an important role in helping rainfall soak into the ground rather than flowing overland, but they also suck carbon out of the atmosphere as they grow, helping to tackle climate change which is itself driving more flooding in Wales. 

With over 70% of carbon removal between now and 2050 set to come from trees planted in the next five years [3], the analysis underlines the critical window that exists for woodland creation to contribute to climate targets. The cumulative shortfall of approximately 41,000 hectares in the UK by 2030 represents not just missed planting, but foregone carbon removal that cannot be easily recovered.

Tom Cantillon, Senior Analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said:

"Welsh communities have felt the force of a changing climate first-hand with heat records broken, but also flooded homes and washed-out farmland. Scientists are clear these events will only become more frequent until net zero emissions is reached and our climate is brought back into balance. Trees planted now will shade livestock, slow floodwaters and help Wales play its part in tackling climate change — but only if they are planted.

“Welsh voters clearly back more trees, and the next five years are critical to getting the right number of saplings in the ground, so they mature in time. The incoming Welsh Government committed to more native woodlands, more trees on farms and planting on public land in its manifesto. But the gap between current delivery and what's needed remains enormous. Closing it will require turning that direction into a clear, well-funded plan, including through the Sustainable Farming Scheme.” 

Andy Egan, Head of Policy at the Woodland Trust said: “Tree planting across the UK remains fragmented and off track in all four nations. Despite the creation of a ministerial UK Tree Planting Taskforce to improve coordination, the taskforce has ground to a halt and not delivered any meaningful outcomes. While the situation in Scotland is less severe, targets are still being missed. We support the urgent need for all nations to launch coordinated tree growing and woodland creation plans that turn ambition into real-world delivery.”

Beyond carbon removal, the analysis highlights broader impacts at risk from delayed planting. Trees provide over £400 million per year in flood protection benefits [4], alongside improvements to water quality, nature recovery, and public health through access to green spaces. With extreme rainfall events increasing due to climate change, trees planted now will reach maturity in time to help reduce flood risk to homes and communities.

Research points to policy uncertainty and the economics of land-use change as key factors behind the planting gap [5]. Woodland creation is a permanent land use change, yet the policy and funding environment has historically been subject to more frequent revision than woodland and forestry timescales demand.

Notes to editors:

  1. The analysis is available to download here
  2. Polling conducted by More in Common of 873 Welsh Adults (16 and above) between 21st – 27thApril 2026
  3. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/government-risks-missing-critical-window-for-tree-planting-analysis
  4. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/trees-and-woodlands-provide-over-400m-each-year-in-fight-against-flooding-new-study-finds
  5. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/ccc-mitigation-monitoring-framework-2022-2024/?chapter=7-agriculture-and-land-use#7-agriculture-and-land-use
  6. Forestry is devolved, meaning delivery depends on action across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The CCC's Balanced Pathway anticipates significant regional shifts in planting allocation from 2030 onwards.
  7. Trendline performance against government targets and CCC advice (projected to 2030):
    1. England: 90% of national target, 52% of CCC Balanced Pathway
    2. Wales: 14% of national target, 26% of CCC Balanced Pathway
    3. Scotland: 95% of national target, 104% of CCC Balanced Pathway
    4. Northern Ireland: 62% of national target, 48% of CCC Balanced Pathway
    5. UK total: 71% of aggregated targets, 72% of CCC Balanced Pathway

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, t: 020 8156 5305, m: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net