UK harvest even worse than previously thought – new data

The UK's arable harvest is now expected to be even smaller than previously forecast, according to updated figures released today by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), with production of key crops forecast to fall to just 18.5 million tonnes in 2026 [1].

The revised forecast is down from the previous estimate of 19.5 million tonnes [2] and would make this year's harvest the smallest on record, by a wider margin than previously expected. Snap analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) finds the downgrade is expected to reduce farm incomes by an additional £160 million, knocking off a total of around £550 million compared to March forecasts. Analysis of previous AHDB data suggested an economic hit of £390m in lost revenue. Total output from cereals and oilseeds now forecast at £3.64 billion - around a third less (-£1.78 billion) than the 2014-23 average [3], when adjusted for inflation. 

2025/2026 was initially looking like finally being a normal or good year for most, with yields forecast to be around or above the 10-year average. However, the very dry April and heatwaves in May, June, July and August have meant crops faced significant stress during key stages of development.

Analysis of historic production data shows that the 2026 harvest is now estimated to be around 1.35 million tonnes smaller than the previous record-low harvest in 2020, underlining the severity of this year's poor growing conditions. With 85% of the wheat harvest complete, Today’s figures make it increasingly likely that four of the five worst harvests on record will have occurred this decade (2020, 2024, 2025 and 2026).

Chris Jaccarini, food economist at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: "The outlook for this year's harvest has gone from bad to worse. Farmers were already facing the prospect of the worst harvest on record, but the latest figures suggest losses will be even greater than first thought. With this year’s unprecedented weather impacting all farming sectors – from meat to vegetables to grains - it’s clear that food production is on the front line of climate change.

"In just three years, farmers have faced the wettest winter on record, the hottest summer on record, and now what’s on track to be an even hotter summer [4]. These extremes are making it harder to grow food, reducing yields and leaving farmers with less to sell while many of their costs remain unchanged.

"Farmers are investing in measures to improve resilience including planting more trees to shade livestock, but there are limits to adaptation. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut to net zero, extreme weather will continue to intensify, putting ever increasing pressure on farm businesses, food production and ultimately food prices.

ENDS

Notes to editors:

1. AHDB's updated forecast shows reduced yields compared to earlier forecasts. Available: https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/gb-harvest-progress  

2. UK harvest on track for historic lows after drought and heatwaves desiccate crops – new analysis (ECIU, 2026). Available: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/uk-harvest-on-track-for-historic-lows-after-drought-and-heatwaves-desiccate-crops-new-analysis

3. 2014-23 average is used as 2024 and 2025 were both very poor years, owing to extreme weather. 2023/2024 saw the wettest six-month (Oct-Mar) winter on record for England and Wales (State of the UK Climate, 2024), which hit the establishment of both autumn and spring sown crops, reducing crop area. The wet weather also affected yield. The combination of low crop area and poor yields made 2024 the third worst harvest on record for the UK and second worst (at the time) for England.

2024/2025 also saw very heavy rainfall in parts of England during September and October, again having a localised impact on crop area in central and southern England, with September 2024 the wettest calendar month on record for Oxfordshire and Bedfordshire (Met Office). The biggest impact on the 2025 harvest however came with the very dry spring and hot summer, which had a significant impact on yield, particularly of cereals. 2025 saw good yields for oilseed rape, helping to offset the historically low area. 2025 was the fourth worst harvest on record by volume for these crops for the UK, and supplanted 2024 as the second worst for England.

4. Summer 2026 on course to be UK's hottest on record, says Met Office (Met Office, 2026) https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/warmest-uk-summer-on-record-increasingly-likely-as-temperatures-stay-well-above-average

For more information or for interview requests:

George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 020 8156 5305, M: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net