Ten Years Post-Paris: global emissions growth in sharp decline
Since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown by just 0.32% per year, less than one fifth of the annual rate observed in the decade before 2015.
Last updated:
Since Paris, growth in global GHG emissions has slowed dramatically.
Annual growth since 2015 has averaged less than a third of one percent, with just over 2.5% in total growth over the period, while in the previous decade emissions rose over 5 times faster, at an average of 1.70% per year.
The slowdown is evident in CO2 emissions data too, with falling land-use change (LUC) emissions playing a significant role in reducing the overall annual growth rate to just 0.15% since 2015.
The global picture of a marked slowdown illustrated below masks a more mixed picture at the national level.
The graph below details pre- and post-Paris CO2 emissions growth rates for the ‘big four’ largest emitting geographies, which collectively account for just over half of global emissions.
The most significant trend is seen in China, where 10-year average emissions growth has plunged from a high of over 8%, to relative stability below 2%.
Accounting for 21.6% of total global CO2 emissions in 2023 and 95% of net fossil fuel demand growth since 2018 (EMBER, 2025), China’s trajectory is critical to global progress. Emerging data suggests that its emissions may in fact now have peaked, with Carbon Brief reporting a 1% drop in the first half of 2025 from the same period last year.
