COP29: past achievements and challenges ahead

As 2024 edges closer to being the warmest year on record, global leaders are gathering in Baku for COP29 to craft comprehensive initiatives against the worsening impacts of climate change. This moment is both a testament to past achievements and a stark reminder of the challenges ahead.

Progress Made: A Promising Trajectory 

Since the first Conference of Parties (COP) in Berlin in 1995, significant progress has been made in the deployment of renewable and clean energy. For instance, the global electricity generation from wind and solar increased from 9 TWh in 1995 to 4,000 TWh in 2023[1] - to put that in context, the electricity demand of the Great Britain was roughly 300 TWh in 2023. Technological advancements, as well as the development of appropriate policies and markets to incentivise the deployment of renewable and clean energy, have been the main drivers. Solar and wind power, once experimental and costly, are now central to national energy grids. The cost of solar energy alone has dropped by more than 80% since 2010, catalysing its rapid adoption. 

Increased awareness of climate change impacts among citizens, consolidated by successive COPs over the past three decades, has pushed countries and corporations to commit to decarbonisation, encouraging record levels of investment in clean energy and sustainable practices. The ripple effects have led to a reduced share of coal and oil in energy portfolios; coal use, for example, has peaked in many developed nations, and oil’s stronghold is weakening with the spread of electric vehicles and biofuels.

Challenges: The Roadblocks to Climate Action 

Despite notable progress, when we glance at the bigger picture of the global energy mix and the annual greenhouse gas emissions, we realise there is still a long way to go. Since 1995, global annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have generally trended upward, despite periods of stabilisation and increased climate action. In 1995, emissions were approximately 35 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e). Over the following decades, as economies expanded and industrial activities surged—especially in rapidly developing countries—annual emissions continued to rise. By 2023, global GHG emissions reached approximately 58 gigatons of CO2e. 

Furthermore, progress in reducing emissions has been uneven across industries and countries, reflecting deep-seated structural and economic disparities. Heavy industry and aviation continue to emit vast amounts of GHGs, with existing green technologies not yet scalable enough—at a competitive cost—to fully mitigate their impacts. For emerging economies dependent on coal, the balancing act between economic growth and sustainability remains a complex challenge. 

Efforts by many countries to implement renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, and introduce climate policies have helped slow the rate of growth in emissions compared to a “business as usual” scenario. However, these measures have not been sufficient to achieve consistent, large-scale reductions needed to meet targets like limiting warming to 1.5°C. Geopolitical frictions and inadequate financial support have further strained international collaboration, which is essential for addressing a borderless issue like climate change.

Future Outlook: Urgent Steps and Global Unity 

Bold, urgent actions are required to match ambition with reality. To bridge the gap between current climate actions and the 1.5°C target, a multipronged strategy is needed:

1. Everyone has a role to play: Governments, corporations, and citizens alike must embrace sustainable practices and champion this cause. Individual choices and behaviours, from energy consumption to lifestyle changes, can significantly influence carbon footprints and propel the global transition.
2. Accelerated Decarbonisation: Rapid phasing out of fossil fuels and scaling up renewables like solar, wind, and emerging technologies such as green hydrogen, to act as long-duration storage, are critical. Governments need to implement stringent emissions regulations, commit to fund carbon capture technologies to become available at a scale needed for decarbonising hard to abate sectors, and overhaul fossil fuel subsidies.
3. Energy Efficiency and Electrification: Enhancing energy efficiency across sectors and advancing the electrification of heat and transportation through investments in efficient heat pumps, battery technology, and public transport can substantially reduce emissions.
4. Climate Finance: Wealthier nations must commit to, and of course ‘deliver’, the climate finance needed for enabling the developing countries to implement the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). The fund has been estimated by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance (IHLEG) to be at least $1 trillion per year by 2030.
5. Nature-Based Solutions: Strategies such as afforestation and sustainable land management can augment carbon sequestration efforts while preserving biodiversity.
6. Stronger International Cooperation: Global unity must extend beyond pledges to enforceable actions with transparent monitoring. A global carbon pricing system could align cross-border incentives and ensure fair contributions.

Conclusion: The Challenges Are Turning to Opportunities 

This blog would be incomplete without mentioning the election of Trump as the next US president. This may be rightly perceived as concerning news for the efforts to tackle climate change, as the United States under the first term of Trump was the only country that withdrew from the Paris Agreement. It is indeed very likely that he will withdraw from the agreement in his second term too. There is no question about how disappointing this could be at a time when more ambitious actions are critical. However, it also needs to be noted that for a businessman like Trump, it is difficult to overlook the ever-growing economic opportunities that lie in the clean energy sector. As reported by the International Energy Agency, the global investment in clean energy was two times higher than the investment in fossil fuels in 2024, with an expectation for the gap to increase in the future. Furthermore, the Inflation Reduction Act signed by Biden, marking the country’s most significant action on clean energy and climate change, has been generally well received by the Republicans.

After all, let’s hope the momentum built up over the past three decades will not be slowed down by an individual.