World needs UK to stay the course on climate
Although global clean energy momentum make it likely Trump will fail a second time to halt or slow climate action, the world still needs leadership from the UK, Brazil and others to get on track.

By Gareth Redmond-King
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Eight years on, Donald Trump is pulling the US out of the Paris Agreement - again. His disruptive tactics the first time did not halt – or even significantly slow – action on climate change. He failed not only to disrupt the global consensus on tackling climate change but also facilitated steady progress at home: in 2017 the US was ranked 14th in solar manufacturing; thanks to a surge in factory investment under Trump, and Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the US now ranks third.
Some of the reasons he failed last time will make it even harder on his second attempt. That includes thousands of leaders from US states, cities, companies and institutions – responsible for nearly three quarters of the nation’s GDP – who have declared once again that they remain committed to climate action. It could also include Republican leaders; nearly three quarters of Biden’s IRA money flowed to red states, creating tens of thousands of new jobs – demonstrating, into the bargain, the energy security and bill savings offered by renewables.
Globally, market momentum has only picked up pace since Trump’s first term. That has been driven by US incentives under Biden, unrivalled investment from China, and the EU’s haste to wean themselves off Russian fossil fuels. Just as US coal CEOs last time warned the economics did not match Trump’s desire to resurrect their industry, so the forecast that demand for oil and gas will decline after 2030 could help thwart his hopes this time. Even China’s oil demand has been predicted by some to peak, in no small part owing to their electric vehicle manufacturing boom.
But not all conditions are better. Eight years on, we have not cut emissions enough to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C, heading instead for some 2.7°C by the end of this century. 2024 was the latest hottest year on record, and the first to clock in at over 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial times. As a result, impacts from climate change are intensifying and getting more dangerous – not least in the US, where devastation caused by the LA wildfires has already pushed estimated damage costs somewhere around $250 billion. So even as Climate Action Tracker suggest Trump’s actions may add a relatively small 0.04°C to warming, is the world in a position to afford any slowing?
More complicated are personnel changes on the world stage. Around the G7 table, Trudeau and Merkel are gone, with Scholz likely not far behind. Macron is overseeing political chaos in France since European elections, and Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba is in a similarly weakened state, having lost his Parliamentary majority and barely survived a confidence vote. Italian PM, Georgia Meloni is a Trump ally, which leaves only Keir Starmer heading a government with ambitious climate commitments and facing (relative) political calm. Alongside, of course, the EU, which retains its emissions-cutting and leadership ambitions.
Climate change, though, doesn’t care who is in power, and worsening climate impacts continue to add to food prices, global stability and security risks everywhere. So ahead of the next UN climate summit, new leadership will be needed if we are to succeed in closing the gap to the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C. The UK offered some of that at COP29, turning up with new 2035 emissions-cutting targets, way ahead of this February’s deadline. They worked closely with COP30 hosts Brazil to support the chaotic Azerbaijan presidency and, alongside the EU and potentially China, have an important role championing the enhanced ambition needed from all nations.
Starmer’s Labour Party was elected on bold pledges to deliver clean power by 2030, end North Sea oil and gas exploration, and halt sales of new petrol and diesel cars this decade. Those, on top of being the first major economy to stop using coal to generate power, are firmly in the ‘world-leading’ category; but recent UK history reminds how easy it is to undermine leadership with unwise commitments. The last government pursued a new coal mine; many hope this one doesn’t succumb to the lure of airport expansion.
Credibility at home gives authority to take a leading role at global climate talks. But the UK would not be going it alone, rather working closely with other leaders, like Brazil and the EU. All of which can help fill the gap as Trump unpicks unprecedented levels of climate spending under Biden. For the leaders, also, the spoils. If Trump is undoing the IRA incentives for investment, he sends clear signals to investors that the US is not for them. That leaves trillions in clean energy investments up for grabs by the UK, EU, India, China and others looking for opportunity. And with net zero industries already adding £74 billion plus to the UK economy, this could offer an even greater growth opportunity, a key focus for the UK government.
This was first published in the FT's Sustainable Views on 27th January, 2025
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