Million new homes dependent on foreign gas for heating decade after key policy scrapped
Scrapping the Zero Carbon Homes policy in July 2015 left new build home using 7.5 times more foreign gas than if policy had been implemented
By Jess Ralston
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The Zero Carbon Homes standard was scrapped on 10th July 2015 [1], and would have seen new homes built to higher energy efficiency standards with low carbon heating and solar panels. Cutting the policy has resulted in new homes using up to 7.5 times more gas imports in 2025, compared to if it had been introduced, new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found. [2]
There have been more than 1.3 million homes built since 2015 [3] that have gas boilers, worse levels of energy efficiency and no solar panels as a result of the Cameron Government scrapping the policy a year before it was due to come into force. Major housebuilders have admitted in Parliament to lobbying against the build standard ahead of that decision. [4] Since then, there has been one minor uplift to energy performance standards for new builds, in 2021, with delays to the Future Homes Standard (the replacement for Zero Carbon Homes) meaning that homes may not be built to higher standards until the late 2020s. [5]
The amount of extra gas used to date by new homes built to worse standards since 2016 is equivalent to the amount of gas used by 1.6 million existing homes for gas heating for a year, or that carried by 20 LNG tankers. [6]
Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at the ECIU said:
“We’ve had 10 years of building inefficient homes that leak heat from their walls and roofs while costing their occupants a fortune in gas bills over the course of the gas crisis. This could have been avoided, as could importing more gas from abroad, if the Government of the day had stuck to its guns. The question now is will the current Government delay further.
“New homes that are warm in winter, cheap to live in and increasingly run off British renewables by having electric heat pumps and solar panels as standard would boost our energy independence and protect billpayer’s pockets. Instead, we are looking at new homes not being built to proper energy efficiency standards for several years to come, while housebuilders continue to make large profits.”
The UK’s gas imports have been rising as the North Sea’s output continues to decline, from net imports of around 7% in 2005, to 43% in 2015, and 49% in 2024. [7] As the roll-out of renewables has gathered pace, UK electricity has become more British over the past decade, with more power coming from UK sources and a falling reliance on foreign fuels such as imported gas for gas power stations. In 2014, around two-thirds (65%) of the energy used for UK electricity generation was dependent on foreign fuels, in comparison to just under half a decade later in 2024. [8]
While the Future Homes Standard will see new homes fitted with high levels of energy efficiency, solar panels and low carbon heating such as heat pumps, there are concerns that delays to the process may result in a lack of new homes being built to the standard until the late 2020s. This would mean over a decade of new homes being built to lower standards, and result in more gas imports from abroad as the North Sea continues its inevitable decline.
Notes to editors:
1. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/uk-scraps-zero-carbon-home-target
2. The analysis started with electricity or gas use for heating new homes. Heat demand was the product of typical new-build floor area of c.75m2 and specific heat demand (heat per unit area per year) under various regulations (noting that some regulations do not state a value but an estimate has been made by experts): 57 kWh/m2 per year for 2013 regulations that were supposed to be replaced by the ZCH standard in 2016, but instead were in force until 2021; 42 kWh/m2 per year for the ZCH basic level that was supposed to apply to homes built in 2016 to 2019; 25 kWh/m2 per year for the ZCH advanced level that was supposed to apply to homes built from 2019 onwards (and which is about the same as the upcoming Future Homes Standard); and 45 kWh/m2 per year for the 2021 Regulations that required an uplift in performance from the 2013 Regulations from 2022 onwards. The annual heat demand for each average home was converted into gas demand for a boiler with efficiency of 85%, and electricity demand for a heat pump with a COP of 4.0.
For other electrical demand, it was assumed that all new homes are rated EPC B for appliances and lighting, as this is more about regulations for those items than about the house itself, with data from Table 28 of NEED (DESNZ, 2025) having an average of 2,360 kWh/yr over the time period of interest. For household solar generation, standard assumptions were used i.e. 3kW array, 11% load factor, and self-use of c.50%, such that a household has to use only about 900kWh/yr of electricity from the grid.
The net gas imports for a gas boiler were based on UK gas net import percentages for each year, taken from Energy Trends 4 (DESNZ, 2025) e.g. 49% in 2024. The net gas imports for electricity taken from the grid were calculated using data for each year from Energy Trends 5 (DESNZ, 2025): firstly, how much electricity had to be generated to provide each unit of end-use demand; secondly, the split between generation technologies, with a focus on gas; thirdly amount of fuel used by each type of power plant; and finally the amount of each fuel that was provided by net imports. Values for 2025 were assumed to be similar to those for 2024.
For example, a house built to 2013 Regulations with a gas boiler and no solar panels relied on c.3,200kWh/yr net imports of gas in 2025, which is 7.5 times the 430kWh/yr that would have been required if it had been built to the ZCH advanced standard with a heat pump and solar panels.
3. Based on historical average of 150,000 new homes being built per year: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building
4. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/1730/173009.htm
5. https://elementsustainability.co.uk/bridging-today-and-tomorrow-the-transition-to-the-future-homes-standard/
6. For new homes built in each year, the extra gas net imports in each subsequent year was the product of the number of homes and the difference between the net imports under the regulations were in force and those that could have been in force. The total extra gas net imports from 2017 to 2025 were the sum of these effects for all of the homes built in 2016 to 2024. An existing home typically uses 11,500kWh/yr of gas for heating.
7. Gas net import data is from Energy Trends 4 (DESNZ, 2025)
8. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/uk-electricity-becoming-more-british-less-import-dependent-analysis
For more information or for interview requests:
George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, Tel: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net