Poll: Energy crisis top of mind as voters in Wales cast their ballots
Few Reform voters motivated by anti-net zero sentiment, but nearly six in ten voters (57%) overall say parties’ commitments to tackling climate change was an important issue in Senedd election
By Alasdair Johnstone
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Climate change and the energy crisis are driving fears about the cost of living in Wales, and helping to fuel political discontent, new polling conducted in the run-up to the Senedd elections has found. [1] The cost-of-living crisis came top of issues determining Welsh people’s vote (49%), just ahead of the NHS (45%) and well ahead of reducing immigration (18%).
When surveyed, more voters said the cost-of-living crisis was one of the biggest challenges facing Wales (67%) than any other issue, ahead of supporting the NHS (51%). When asked about their top cost of living concerns, the top three responses were energy bills (61%), food bills (61%), and fuel costs (46%) which are being driven up by the oil and gas crisis caused by the US conflict with Iran as well as climate change’s impact on crop yields [2].
Respondents were less likely to say that costs which have been less affected by the recent disruption to global oil and gas supplies or extreme weather events, such as rent and mortgage payments (23%), water bills (20%), and car maintenance (12%), were a significant cause of concern.
The polling, which was conducted by More in Common, on behalf of the Energy and Climate Unit (ECIU), found high levels of support for Wales meeting its net zero emissions targets, with over half of voters in Wales (53%) saying they supported the Welsh government’s net zero targets compared to less than a third (29%) who were opposed, and with over six in ten (63%) saying that Wales should at least try to hit net zero emissions by 2050. Net zero emissions is a scientific not a political concept, and the only way to stop climate change. By law, the UK must reach net zero emissions by 2050, meaning that large sectors of the economy must decarbonise and that any remaining manmade emissions will be balanced by an equivalent number of emissions being removed from the atmosphere either through natural processes or through engineered technologies.
Even amongst supporters of Reform, who were generally less supportive of Wales’s net zero targets than other parties, support for rolling back these targets was low. Only around one in ten (12%) of Reform voters said that reversing policies designed to limit climate change was an important issue, suggesting that this was not a significant factor in explaining Reform’s success.
Commenting, Laura Dunn, Senior Associate at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “
“This was a “cost of living election”, with widespread frustration at the perceived inability of successive governments’ failure to bring rising prices under control fuelling disenchantment with establishment Westminster parties like Labour and the Conservatives and driving support for Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.
“But the reality is that much of the of cost-of-living crisis has been driven by the actions of Putin and Trump pushing up oil and gas prices, as well as climate change affecting harvests.
“Burning less oil and gas by accelerating the transition to net zero emissions will lessen Wales’ dependence on volatile international energy markets. And the evidence is very clear that net zero is also the only scientific way to stop climate change and the worsening climate impacts such like flooding and droughts which are driving up prices on the shelves. With nearly six in ten voters in Wales saying that a party’s commitment to climate action was an important issue to them, striving for net zero isn’t just a matter of basic science, there’s an electoral case for it too”.
In the UK, gas costs set electricity prices the majority of the time, leaving the UK particularly vulnerable to the kinds of instability in international energy markets that has been witnessed following the commencement of hostilities in Iran [3]. Independent analysts, Cornwall Insight, have warned that the typical dual fuel energy bill could rise by £200 in July when the price cap is revised, and there is widespread concern about the possibility of a repeat of the 2021 / 2022 energy crisis, which is estimated to have cost every household in Wales on average £2,285 [4].
Previous analysis by the ECIU has also found that a combination of high energy costs and climate impacts at home and abroad added £605 to the average food shop in 2022 and 2023 [5]. The ECIU projected this week that by November 2026, food prices are set to rise by 50% when compared to the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021 as a result of the ongoing energy crisis and the effects of climate change [6].
Notes to editors:
1. More in Common / ECIU Polling: More in Common polling for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, 21st – 27th April, sample size: 873.
2. ECIU: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/food-prices-set-to-rise-by-50-since-start-of-cost-of-living-crisis-new-analysis-shows
3. ECIU: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/analysis-growth-in-british-renewables-cutting-electricity-prices-by-up-to-a-quarter
4.Cornwall Insight: https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/
5. ECIU: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2023/families-hit-by-605-food-bill-as-extreme-weather-and-energy-crisis-bites
6. ECIU: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/food-prices-set-to-rise-by-50-since-start-of-cost-of-living-crisis-new-analysis-shows
For more information or for interview requests:
George Smeeton, Head of Communications, ECIU, t: 020 8156 5305, m: 07894 571 153, email: george.smeeton@eciu.net