Wales’s dependence on rest of UK for electricity grows, falling behind England and Scotland on renewables
Wales’s failure to keep pace with renewables risks leaving it more dependent on gas – as war in Iran sends prices soaring and seven in ten Welsh voters express concern about dependence on US imports.
By George Smeeton
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Without expanding its renewable generation capacity, Wales risks becoming more dependent on imported gas and electricity imported from England, new analysis has found. The warning comes as the war in Iran sent gas prices soaring to a three-year high (1) with independent analysts Cornwall Insight estimating that the average household energy bill could rise by nearly £300 when the energy price cap is revised in July 2026 (2).
Wales risks becoming more dependent on imported gas and electricity imported from England without renewables
https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/waless-dependence-on-rest-of-uk-for-electricity-grows-falling-behind-england-and-scotland-on-renewables
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The Welsh government has set a target of meeting 100% of its electricity demand from renewable sources by 2035 (3). Renewable generation has grown nearly eightfold since 2024, with renewables now meeting around a third of Welsh electricity demand. However, growth has stalled since 2019 and experts have warned that Wales’s renewables planning pipeline, although still substantial, is smaller and less developed than in England and Scotland.
This recent slow progress in scaling up renewables capacity, coupled with a rising demand for electricity, which is forecast to double by 2050 (4), means that renewables’ share of generation is currently forecast to fall, according to ECIU projections. This risks leaving Wales more dependent on gas generation, which already accounts for 58% of Wales’s power output – more than any other nation in the UK.
In the UK, the cost of gas dictates domestic electricity prices the vast majority (85%) of the time (5). As the price of gas is itself largely set by international markets, this leaves British consumers acutely vulnerable to global price shocks – with the IMF warning that the UK will be “especially exposed” to the fallout from the war in Iran as a result of its dependence on gas-powered generation (6).
Experts, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Crisis Commission, have said that accelerating the deployment of new renewables is essential to squeezing gas off the grid and shielding consumers from volatility in international markets (7). Last year, large wind farms alone lowered the day-ahead price of wholesale electricity by a third (8).
Commenting, Laura Dunn, Senior Associate at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “The cost-of-living is voters’ number one priority heading into the Senedd elections, with growing fears of a repeat of the energy crisis which followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In an increasingly uncertain world, the best way to offer Welsh households and industry the long-term certainty they need is by untethering the cost of electricity from unstable international gas markets.
"Wales has seen significant progress in rolling out new renewables and, across the UK, renewables are already helping to squeeze gas off the grid. With demand for electricity set to grow as homes and industry electrify, more action is urgently needed to speed up the pace at which new renewables are coming online if the Welsh government is to meet its clean energy targets and prevent Wales becoming more dependent on imported electricity”.
The crisis in oil and gas markets has accentuated concerns about the UK’s dependence on imported energy, with last year’s National Security Assessment stating that the UK needed to reduce its energy reliance on other nations (9). According to polling conducted by More in Common on behalf of the ECIU, seven in ten Welsh voters (70%) expressed concerned about Wales being dependent on energy imported from the United States and nearly as many (67%) about Wales being reliant on energy imported from the rest of the world (10). In recent years, the United States has become the UK’s largest supplier of Liquefied Natural Gas, supplying 68% of UK imports (11). This has led experts to warn of the possibility of the Trump administration leveraging energy supplies to extract policy concessions from European governments (12).
Notes to editors:
1. Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
2. Cornwall Insight: https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/
3. Welsh Government: https://www.gov.wales/new-deal-unlock-full-potential-renewable-energy-wales
4. Welsh Government: https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2025-02/energy-generation-in-wales-2023.pdf
5. ECIU: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2025/analysis-growth-in-british-renewables-cutting-electricity-prices-by-up-to-a-quarter
6. IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance
7. Energy Crisis Commission https://energycrisiscommission.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/energy-crisis-commission-report-october-2024.pdf
8. ECIU: https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/wind-farms-cut-power-prices-by-almost-a-third-in-2025
9. HM Government: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/685ab0da72588f418862075c/E03360428_National_Security_Strategy_Accessible.pdf
10. - More in Common / ECIU Polling: More in Common polling for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, 15th February – 3rd March, sample size: 851.
11. UK Government: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6941a0a45431f4f94d7f0b49/Energy_Trends_December_2025.pdf
12. Clingandael: https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2026-01/Policy_brief_Europes_Selective_Blindness_on_Gas.pdf