How they got it wrong – pessimistic predictions upended by post-Paris momentum

• In 2015, BP’s Energy Outlook [2] predicted that the global non-fossil share of power generation would rise modestly from 32% that year to 38% by the end of its forecast period in 2035. By 2024 non-fossil generation already accounted for over 41% of the global power supply [3] – making more progress in 10 years than was predicted over 20.
• Solar and wind have hugely exceeded expectations: the world installed 553 GW of solar in 2024 alone, overshooting 2015 International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts by more than 1,500% [4]. Coal is now in global decline. Total global solar capacity is over four times what was predicted in 2015, and doubling every three years.
• EVs have exceeded expectations: 2024 EV deployment is already 40% above the IEA’s 2015 projections, and on track to be 66% higher by 2030. The Paris declaration target of 100 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030 is on target to be hit as soon as 2027.

Commenting on the findings, John Lang, Net Zero Tracker Lead at ECIU, said: “The Paris Agreement marked the first time the world signalled genuine intent to stop climate change. COP26 in Glasgow then turned that intent into net zero commitments — the only route to a stable climate. Together, these moments unleashed unprecedented momentum behind the shift to clean energy systems.

“There will always be doubters, claiming the transition can’t be done or that their country’s share of emissions is only 1%. But this shift is accelerating — irreversibly and irrefutably. The choice is simple: be part of it and prosper or stand aside and watch your influence fade.”

Other key findings:

• In the 10 years before the Paris agreement was signed, fossil fuel generation met 68% of global electricity demand growth. In the decade since, global electricity demand has grown faster than ever before, but renewables have met 67% of the increase in demand, and the trend is accelerating.
• Clean energy investment will reach $2.2 trillion in 2025, double the spending on fossil fuels, with solar PV investment exceeding all other power generation combined. The ‘big four’ energy geographies (China, the US, EU and India) account for 62% of global energy investment and here the trend is even stronger, with clean energy investment outpacing fossil fuel investment at a rate of $2.6 for every $1, more than double what it was in 2015.
• Global CO2 emissions have plateaued: since 2015, annual CO₂ emissions (including land use) are up just 1.2%, compared with 18.4% in the decade before Paris. In the decade before Paris (2005–2015), global greenhouse gas emissions rose at 1.70% per year; since the Paris Agreement (2015–2025), that annual increase has slowed to just 0.32% — a five-fold drop in growth rate.
• EV rollout is increasingly displacing fossil fuel use: global market share of new sales passed 20% in 2024, and is on track for 40% by 2030, over 10 years ahead of the IEA’s 2015 forecast and already avoids about 1.8 million barrels a day of oil demand.
• Climate policy has matured: framework climate laws have more than tripled since 2015; national climate policy tools are up seven-fold, and at least 83% of the global economy remains covered by net zero targets — despite the US federal retreat from net zero and climate policy.
• Growth in clean energy jobs: clean-energy jobs (36.2 million) now outnumber those in oil, gas and coal and fossil-engine manufacturing (32.1 million). Renewables jobs almost doubled from 8.5 million (2015) to 16.2 million (2023). [5]

Gareth Redmond-King, International Programme Lead at ECIU, said that the analysis highlighted the importance of global commitments to tackle climate change: “Is this enough to keep us safe? No it clearly isn’t. Is it remarkable progress compared to where we were headed? Clearly it is. Paris has helped jam the brakes on emissions growth to just 0.32 % a year, a fivefold drop compared to the decade before. And now, China’s emissions may well have already peaked.

“The UK’s Climate Change Act has been copied around the world, and the UK was the first G7 country to set a net zero target. But now net zero commitments cover 83% of global GDP. We were the country that kick-started the massive offshore wind industry. We hosted the successful COP26 summit. Are we more impactful than the 1% of global emissions we account for? Saying otherwise is to talk Britain down. Our net zero economy grew three times faster than the economy as a whole last year.

“The next step in this journey, with attention turning to COP30 in Brazil, is the expectation that all countries signed up to the Paris Agreement need now to submit their new plans to further cut emissions out to 2035.”

The global political landscape has shifted markedly over the decade. With the US stepping back twice from climate leadership under President Trump, China and other emerging economies are increasingly shaping the next phase of the transition, from clean-tech manufacturing and South–South finance to diplomacy. 

As the world turns its focus to the COP30 climate summit in Belém — where all countries are expected to submit strengthened national climate plans (NDCs) — the focus will turn to consolidating progress, reinforcing multilateralism, scaling up finance for developing nations and protecting nature. The Brazilian Presidency is also expected to elevate adaptation and resilience alongside emission cuts, putting the lived realities of people at the heart of climate action. The choices made in Brazil will not only help determine whether the momentum of the past ten years delivers a sustained decline in global emissions in the next decade, but also whether it builds a more resilient future for those most affected by climate change.